Bold Optimism this year.  Bold.

 

Personally, I think the Sox have a better than average shot at 100 wins.  So let's just say it.  I predict 100 wins.  Let's face it: The Yanks are worse.  Much worse.  The Rays are worse, and probably much worse (they have too many young guys to really know, but we'll see).  The Sox are better, and much better.  (Baltimore, the dormat for the last decade, is better though).  With all the divisional games, the key for 100 games is in the division.  Usually, the Sox split against NY and Tampa (or close to it).  If they can pick up six games here by going 12-7 against each, we're in the mix for 100.

 

But things happen.  Here are 10 things that could happen to prevent it.

 

 

  1. A-Rod.  Since he signed his mammoth 10 year deal and got caught doing PEDs, he has been a good player.  But he hasn't been A-Rod.  No joke, in the new Yankee stadium this cat should be hitting 50 HR a year. He's hit 30 the last two years, with an average OPS under .900.  Basically, at that rate, he's going to go down as one of the most over paid players ever if he doesn't pick up the pace.  He could do just that, and give the Bronx Bombers a truly fearsome line-up.  Just cause he's had two off years, doesn't mean he's at a new level.  But if his old stats are, well, PEDs-related, and the "just really good, but not great" A-rod is here to stay, that won't help NY.
  2. Texeria.  I don't know, you tell me: Do you think the Yanks signed this guy to hit .256 and under .500 slugging?  I think not.  But those are his stats last year, which involved a second year where he didn't hit his weight in April. Unless you think he really weighs less than 137 pounds.  If he and A-rod have a break-out year, the Yanks should coast to 92 wins, by just pummeling other teams.  If they do, they'll win their share against the Sox, and 100 wins is down the tubes.  
  3. Tampa Bay rookies have break out seasons.  If you haven't noticed folks, the GM in Tampa has figured out how to stockpile young guys with talent.  His rotation is still going to be good, but will be weaker without Matt Garza, and he did lose a premier talent in Crawford, as well as several other productive scorers.  I don't really know how Tampa will score runs this year, but I think their offense could be so anemic as to stress out the starters, bullpen, and everyone else as they try to win every game 2-1.  But as noted at the start, we'll see how that works out.
  4. Beckett stays, um, terrible.  I think most of us have noticed that Beckett has been good year/bad year, for his time here.  He should be on a "good year", but he's had enough bad ones to keep me nervous.  Worth watching, as they need him to dominate.
  5. Injuries. Yeah, a lame one.  But it's legit.  If you'd told me last spring the Sox would have major injuries to Beckett, Dice-K, Youkillis, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Cameron, Varitek and Martinez, (that's 33% of the TEAM, all starters.) I'd have said you were nuts, that no one is that unlucky.  Well, the Sox were that unlucky.  And it could happen again, but probably not.
  6. Ellsbury goes in the tank.  Who knows what we'll get from him this year?  .275 and 150 games?  .300? Or will he keep running into walls and knocking himself out of games?  'Coby, I love your defensive effort. I do. But you can't help us from the bench.  The Sox don't need him to be a successful team, but they do need him to get to 100 wins.  18 games won't cut it this year.
  7. The Catching position is important.  The Sox are keeping their options open here, for sure.  But no one really knows what we're going to get here.  It could be a black hole offensively and defensively, and cost them games.  Lots of games.
  8. Gonzales doesn't like crowds.  Folks, it happens.  Not everyone can play at Fenway.  Going from Petco to Fenway is like going from a farm in Indiana to Tokyo.  Can he handle the pressure to perform?  Can he use it to excel?  Or will he fold like a newspaper?  My money is he'll be AWESOME, but we don't know.  He'll be in a major spot in the batting order (I have him third), and could kill the team if he can't hit for a couple of months.
  9. The Yankees find pitching.  They don't have any options to strengthen the rotation that I see.  I guess Burnett could get his head on straight and they make a major trade. I don't see it happening.  However, Cashman's not afraid to pull out the stops if he thinks it's a difference maker, so something could happen.  With pitching, the Yanks are fearsome.  Right now though, they're just a good team whose going to get clobbered from time to time.
  10. Baltimore or Toronto show up. Well, nothing is impossible in baseball.  They look overmatched to me, but that's why they play the games.

 

 

Do Good Things Today!

 Matt Heisler