The Cherington Era Begins for the Red Sox

The departure of Francona and now Epstein has been discussed, talked about, and dissected ad nausem at this point, by lots of others but me, so I'll try to use my space here to point out some things which have been, ahem, under emphasized by the local media.

Were Changes Needed at the Red Sox?

The Park will be the Same as Last Year, and much of the Team will be too.

Francona was a very successful manager. But, despite his success, he wasn't going to be here forever. His health alone and the constant stress in this market had me wondering aloud two years ago how long he could keep it up. He was very good, but the game's managers are getting much more consistent, and with the "unified" team work approach that I expect the Sox to continue to use, anyone they pick will probably be able to do a very good job. As good as Francona? Well, we'll see. As good as Grady Little or Jimy Williams? Much better than those guys. And the Sox still have a very good team - good teams have a way of making managers look smart. I enjoyed, at some level, watching guys like Grady Little (who would often make boneheaded moves night after night), and getting wound up about it. With Francona, there was hardly ever a move that didn't have a good reason behind it. There were warning signs his tenure might be ending for years, but going to the playoffs makes most people forget those things. To wit:

 

2 of the last 4 Red Sox teams have scuffled badly in April.

2011: 11-15

2010: 11-12

 

 

and 3 of the last 4 Red Sox teams have scuffled badly in September, mostly due to injury.

2011: Do I even need to pour salt in that wound?

2010: 13-14

2009: 15-13

 

This shows a long-term trend of something - struggling in the division, or perhaps not being ready when leaving Spring Training, and not being able to compete in September is really an issue. Injuries have been a problem, but why are they such a problem for the Sox? That needs to be fixed. On paper, I would argue that the last three years the Sox have been the best team in the division on paper - and they have no division titles to show for it. Again, this is not about September 2011, but this reflects a trend that has been true for years. Change was needed.

 

Similarly, Epstein, well known to despise the media attention that the GM of the Red Sox gets, got a better opportunity, and a chance to run a baseball team with 1/10th the scrutiny. Of course he took it. Bashing Epstein is ridiculous. Anyone who looked at today's team and compared it to the 2003 team would be blown away at the improvement at virtually every position. And that's not all, he also resurrected the farm system, stockpiled draft picks, and did it all while not blowing the budget. And for those who are out there saying it's easy cause he's had all this money to spend, that's just ludicrous. There are more teams spending more money than ever before. I think in 2004 the Sox were #2 in payroll. In 2011, they were third. They are $40 Million, or 20% behind the Yankees, and anyone who thinks that's not a huge difference I ask you: Would you like a 20% raise tomorrow? Or does it make no difference? Thought so. Forty Million, in terms of players, is TWO pitchers at $20 Mil/year, and those would likely be aces on most staffs. So, it's HUGE. The media knuckleheads can nit pick all they want, Epstein has produced, from top to bottom, a fantastic system, sold tickets, made money for the team and WON. Are Lackey and Crawford going to live up to their deals? No. but no one bats 1.000 in that game. In 10 years, he's only had one untradeable contract, and that's an accomplishement in itself.

 

One last comment: The Beer and chicken news story is like the junk food it describes. Filling, yummy, and totally bad for you. Everyone is yapping like this is why they fell apart in September. What a load of SH**. It might be, like 2%, of what happened. It's not worth talking about.

 

Enough about the past, Here's what Cherington's Future Will Be

Now that I wrapped up predictions for last year, time to go out on the limb this year. I reserve the right to tweak this in December, but here are the big pieces.

 

1) Bye Papi! The Sox will try to sign Papi. But to a one year deal, and he'll get two somewhere else (Angels, Baltimore, and Rays are top contenders. Yankees aren't, they have no room for a DH). The Sox won't try very hard because....

 

Beckett Stays.  You don't trade front line starter over Fried Chicken.

2) Ryan Lavarnway is ready for the majors. He needs work defensively, but he needs at bats at the top level. The minors are crowded with catching prospects, so they need to move someone up or out. This guy is a moose and he can hit. He can't catch full time - he's not ready - so he'll need to DH to get at bats. He needs 500 AB's next year. I think he'll get them. But if he's catching.....

 

3) Bye Tek. There could be a situation where they keep three catchers, but I don't see it. Roster is too small, and if Lavarnway keeps improving, they'd have to cut ties with Tek mid season, which is not very classy. Personally, I hope the Sox pick him up as a specialty coach - both Salty and Lavarnway still need a steady hand, and he's been great at game plans with pitchers. But that's not likely. Without a doubt though, the Sox just can't deal with another woeful September from Tek, and they have other options.

 

4) Welcome Kalish! This could be a bit premature, Kalish is very tradeable, but he's ready to man RF for the Sox. If he does get traded, it'll be to get more right-handedness on the roster.

 

5) Beckett doesn't get traded. Pure mindless drivel.

 

6) Lackey doesn't get traded either. In a bizarre way, fans got some good news yesterday. Lackey's been pitching with a ruptured tendon in his elbow. Although it means we have to replace him on the roster, fans don't have to watch him - getting some much needed space between him and them - and there's a good chance that he'll return to the 4.5 ERA pitcher who eats innings. The Sox need that guy in 2013, hopefully he'll be back. He has NO CHANCE of being traded. His contract is too expensive, no one is going to pick up someone until they know they can pitch after Tommy John, and he stunk last year. He's a Sox, for at least two more years (and then his contract is trade-able, as the Sox have an option for another year at the league minimum.)

 

7) Crawford doesn't get traded. Too soon to fold on this hand.

 

8) Wakefield is a maybe. The Rotation is thus: Beckett, Lester, Buckholz, and perhaps Dice K after the all star break. That means the Sox are woefully thin at pitcher. If they sign some decent free agents, than he's gone. But if they don't get enough arms he's cheap enough to roll the dice with. They're going to have to get creative here....

 

9) Bye Papelbon. He's a quality closer, had a magnificent year, and someone will offer him 3 at 12, or four at 10. Sox won't tie up that capital in a closer. They can't.

 

10) Bard gets a crack at the rotation. I don't think they'll find enough help in free agency. I don't really think a worthwhile free agent starter is out there, but the Sox will sign one or two, as they can't count on Dice K for anything at this point. But they are still thin. I think the Sox know that Aceves, as great as he was down the stretch, doesn't have enough "stuff" to get through lineups twice. But Bard does, and he's good enough, with a strong enough delivery, to try in the rotation. He might even be better, as he learns how to pitch through a tough inning. Originally a one pitch pitcher, he has three now, and could turn into a legit back of the rotation starter. Hell, he could win quite a few games with just his fast ball.

 

11) Closer by Committee returns. Well, maybe not really. The Sox have gotten better at finding bullpen help, and they'll need to this year as well. I think Jenks is the plan here, but there's enough pieces out on the board to not know how this plays out. Lots of bullpen guys move around every year.  With Papelbon and Bard gone, there will be lots of discussion as to how everything fits together. However it fits together, it won't be as seamless as Bard and Papelbon were this year - until September of course.

 

 

Still more stuff in the air, but those are the headlines until January.

 

 

 

 

 

Do Good Things Today!

Matt Heisler