Keeping Score: Red Sox Prediction Outcomes

Prediction

Result

Grade

Notes

Sox will win the AL pennant

Missed the playoffs

F

Have to start here. They were on track in late August, and would have won the pennant with a .500 September. But it was not to be.

Gonzales finishes with .OPS near 950

OPS at .957

A+

Despite the soft finish, it was a heck of year. Next year could be even better.

Yankess will finish behind the Rays

Won the pennant

F

The Yankees had serious holes, but they competed every day, the pitching held up, and they escape many serious injuries. I still can't believe they won it with Colon and Garcia, but it's in the books.

Jeter has a better year, but not by much

Ops in 2010: .710

OPS in 2011: .743

A

His slow start meant I started crowing about his demise, but his second half was better and ended up where I initially though he would in the calm collective thoughts of the offseason.

Carl Crawford could be the next JD Drew contract situation

Crawford slumped early and badly, never really recovered.

B

I sure didn't see the woefulness that was Crawford's season coming, so I had to mark myself down for that. (Neither did anyone else, but..). Even if he returns to form, this season (and his contract) will haunt him for a while, and that was the main point.

The Lineup

Hit on all the major pieces in December!

A-

Despite the fact that Francona messed around with the line up for the first couple of weeks, he eventually revereted to the only lineup I thought made sense. Ellsbury, Pedroia, Gonzales, Youk. If Crawford had hit better, he would have been fifth, where I had him, but by the time the top four were straighten out he found himself 8^th. Ortiz had a monster year and work himself up to five from my projected six. 7,8 & 9? Close enough.

Lowrie replaces Scutaro

Lowrie replaced him early, then got hurt again.

B+

Hey, no one was talking about Lowrie at short. And he CARRIED the team in April. Great talent, but I expected him to stay healthy, foolish me.

Mike Cameron doesn't have a spot

The Sox kept him on the roster for a bit, then traded him.

A-

My faith in Jacoby panned out, and that left Cameron without a spot. When his penchant for crushing lefties disappeared, so did he.

Lukewarm on Salty

He started cold, then heated up, but his situation isn't clear.

Inc.

I failed to make any prediction here, except a shrug of the shoulders. Salty has proven he won't kill them behind the plate – but he'll compete for a spot every year, unless his defense and bat keep improving.

Things that could prevent 100 wins: Beckett doesn't dominate

He did, mostly, but not enough for the 100 wins.

B

The September swoon will be long remembered. He was an important difference maker who didn't make a difference down the stretch.

Things that could prevent 100 wins: The Yanks find pitching

They did. Colon and Garcia bailed them out big time.

A-

Really, how did this happen? I still don't understand.

Things that could prevent 100 wins: Tampa's rookies score runs

They started off slow and heated up down the stretch, just enough to pass Boston.

B+

They're pitching dominated as well. All in all, the Sox record against Tampa ruined their season.

Russell Martin will come back to earth from his hot start

OPS at year end an uninspiring .732

A

Got that one right, but....

Curtis Granderson will come back to earth

OPS at year end .916

F

Missed here. What a year for Granderson.

Colon and Garcia will struggle in the second half and not stay in the rotation.

They did get softer, but not as bad as I thought they would

C-

Not sure why the Sox were the only guys who really took advantage of these fellas.  Got to tip the cap though, they had remarkable seasons for the Yankees.

Dice-K will have a good year

Started strong, got hurt, out for the year

F

I'll have to think more about whether injury predictions are possible.  Sox are developing a string of players with injury histories.

Buckholz will have a good year

Started strong, got hurt, out for the year

F

Sigh.  You can basically track the pitching failure to when Buckholz left.  They were unable to fill the gap.

Lackey will be a major problem if he doesn't improve

Ahh, yeah.

A

Finishing with the worst ERA for a starter in the history of the Red Sox counts as a problem.

They are playing Varitek too much, he might not be able to hit in September

He was a dead stick at the end of the year.

A-

Last year in the uni for 'Tek, more on that next time.

Ortiz will slump this year

His Septmeber wasn't great, (.762 OPS), but not a horrific slump either

C

Say goodbye to Big Papi.

Sox won't make a move at the deadline

Sox grabbed Erik Bedard

C

No one knew at the time that Buckholz had a broken back, but I was still wrong.

Yankees will make a move at the deadline

They didn't

F

A surprise, but I guess Cashman has more faith in his "chips" than I do.

Beltran and Jose Reyes won't be traded to Sox

They didn't

A

This chatter looked like lunacy to me.

Detriot may represent the AL in the World Series

Yeah, I said it.

B

Pushed Texas to a long series in the ALCS.