Overview of the Southborough Housing Market

The last Southborough Home Sales Report provided some solid predictions that came through this month. It was noted that the HSI would probably rebound to an 80 when some of the pendings came through, and look at that: we've rebounded to 80. If I do a similar analysis, we'd see an HSI of 89 in Southborough at the moment, as it is showing 17 pendings. Also note this is the second report in a row (following Shrewsbury) to see a rise in the $/sq foot, with a large jump of $8 in just about 7 weeks. That means we're likely to see all the reports from this point forward showing increases in prices at least until the Spring market is over - those closings will be in August. So if you think prices have moved up, they have. The market has been very good for sellers, and tough on buyers - too many of whom are not reading this blog!! Will things soften a bit? Maybe. But I expect inventory to remain tight throughout the year. Buyers will need to be flexible, patient, and ready to pounce through June, July, August and September.

Once again, we see foreclosures for sale down, and short-sales available up. As noted in the last report, this is an interesting trend, which may provide some data to support the theory that banks are more open to - and seeking - short-sales instead of foreclosures in this area (which is really a no-brainer for the banks, but that's another story). Keep an eye on this ratio going forward as we look for the trend to continue across the metrowest.

Southborough Real Estate For Sale and Sold Market Statistics - Raw MLS Data

• There are 77 homes listed (vs. 56 in the last Southborough Home Sales Report) as For Sale.
• There have been 62 houses sold (vs 47) in the last 6 months, and 45 homes sold (vs. 20) in the last 3 months.
• There was an Average Market Time of 136 days for just SOLD homes.
• There is an Average Market Time of 128 days (vs. 208) of the homes For Sale.
• The Dollars paid per Square Foot in Southborough, MA is $190 (vs. $182)
• There was an Average Sold Price of $514,508 for sold homes.
• Southborough, MA has 0 properties (vs. 1) advertised as lender owned/foreclosure (typically foreclosure) .
• Southborough, MA has 4 properties (vs. 3) advertised as a shortsale is going to be needed by lender 
• Southborough, MA “Hot Seller Index” (HSI): 80 Last Report: 65

*All statistics are for Single Family Houses and based on data in MLS.

Read my Explanation for Massachusetts Home Data Reports.

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About Matt Heisler

Matt Heisler is a real-estate professional and owner of this website. He has been selling homes in MA for buyers and sellers for over 20 years. He is an expert in foreclosure purchases, short-sale purchases, short-sale sales, buy and hold investing, fix and flip investing, and of course traditional residential home sales. He is happy to take questions as they pertain to real estate on Title V, Radon, Termites, Sump Pumps, Roofs, Foundations, Wells, Septic Systems, Cash-Flow, Staging, and a host of other housing issues. As a Vanderbilt University alumnus, he is proud to serve his local community.

Do Good Things Today! Matt Heisler

*All information is posted in good faith and is assumed to be reliable, but may rely on third party information sources.

Overview of the Shrewsbury Housing Market

The Home Seller's Index moved up just one to 77 - but all the metrics are trending positive, and the market is much more positive than it might appear for sellers. This will be apparent in the next report when the "active pendings" go through and close. Buyers should be aggressive in Shrewsbury, especially in popular price ranges if they are looking for homes that need little to no work - those will be going the quickest. Sellers should still find, even in May, that there are plenty of buyers. The spring market is not over yet.

I'm starting to see a pattern emerge in Metrowest, as foreclosures seem to be falling, but short-sales are up. I'm not sure if this is seasonal, driven by optimistic sellers and agents, both or neither. I do think banks that are holding "underwater loans" are getting much more interested in solving that problem with short-sales, but my opinion is mostly anecdotal, as I'm not aware that there are any statistics out there that could back that up. But it's a trend watching. It's here in Shrewsbury as well, as we see foreclosures down, but short-sales up.

Shrewsbury, MA Real Estate For Sale and Sold Market Statistics - Raw MLS Data

• There are 191 homes (vs. 140 in the Shrewsbury Homes for Sale Report) listed as For Sale.
• There have been 159 houses sold (vs. 149) in the last 6 months, and 98 homes sold (vs. 78) in the last 3 months.
• There was an Average Market Time of 128 days (vs. 149) for just SOLD homes.
• There is an Average Market Time of 137 days of the homes For Sale.
• The Dollars paid per Square Foot in Shrewsbury is $168 (vs. $167 )
• There was an Average Sold Price of $378,103 for sold homes.
• Shrewsbury, MA has 5 properties (vs. 3) advertised as lender owned/foreclosure (typically foreclosure) .
• Shrewsbury, MA has 14 properties (vs. 11) advertised as a shortsale is going to be needed by lender .
• Shrewsbury “Hot Seller Index” (HSI): 77 Last Report: 76

*All statistics are for Single Family Houses and based on data in MLS.

Read my Explanation for Massachusetts Home Data Reports.

Our Most Requested Posts

• How do I get the seller to pay my closing costs, and is it free money?
• What do I need to know about Heat Pumps? Will they save me money?
• Will Solar Panels add Value to my Home and build Equity?
• Is it a bad idea to buy a house near power lines? Is it safe to buy a house near high tension powerlines?
• What is the Case-Schiller Index?
• Investors can make money on foreclosures - can you?
• Should I buy a home with electric heat? How much will my heating bill be with electric heat?

About Matt Heisler

Matt Heisler is a real-estate professional and owner of this website. He has been selling homes in MA for buyers and sellers for over 20 years. He is an expert in foreclosure purchases, short-sale purchases, short-sale sales, buy and hold investing, fix and flip investing, and of course traditional residential home sales. He is happy to take questions as they pertain to real estate on Title V, Radon, Termites, Sump Pumps, Roofs, Foundations, Wells, Septic Systems, Cash-Flow, Staging, and a host of other housing issues. As a Vanderbilt University alumnus, he is proud to serve his local community.

Do Good Things Today! Matt Heisler

*All information is posted in good faith and is assumed to be reliable, but may rely on third party information sources.

A couple of Home Sales to keep people up with:

10 July, Sudbury, MA 01776

Filled with some interesting new construction challenges, we were able to put some great buyers in this home.

View Larger Map

And in Southborough, we have another sale to report:

View Larger Map

Look for reviews from these buyers and sellers soon!

Matt

Overview of the Northborough Housing Market

This is a modestly improved report for Northborough. We see the HSI jumping 6 to 82, putting Northborough firmly in a neutral market. Sales are happening quicker, transactions faster, and $/sq foot is down marginally, but mostly stable. Buyers will have better selection in Northborough than some other towns, but the best properties are still moving quickly. Sellers need to make sure their properties are well positioned, and should do their best to make sure they are staged and fixed for buyers who remain picky.

Modest improvement in the banked owned properties picture, as we see that foreclosures are dropping noticably, and short-sales are down as well, but not as much. Still about 10% of the inventory, but it's moving.

Northborough Real Estate For Sale and Sold Market Statistics - Raw MLS Data

• There are 93 homes (vs. 69 in the last Northborough Home Sales Report) listed as For Sale.
• There have been 80 houses sold (vs. 66) in the last 6 months, and 53 homes sold (vs. 38) in the last 3 months.
• There was an Average Market Time of 120 days for just SOLD homes.
• There is an Average Market Time of 113 days of the homes For Sale.
• The Dollars paid per Square Foot in Northborough is $171 (vs. $173)
• There was an Average Sold Price of $366,871 for sold homes.
• Northborough has 1 properties (vs. 4) advertised as lender owned/foreclosure (typically foreclosure) .
• Northborough has 6 properties (vs. 5) advertised as short sale is going to be needed by lender .
• Northborough “Hot Seller Index” (HSI): 82 Last Report: 76

*All statistics are for Single Family Houses and based on data in MLS.

Read my Explanation for Massachusetts Home Data Reports.

Our Most Requested Posts

• How do I get the seller to pay my closing costs, and is it free money?
• What do I need to know about Heat Pumps? Will they save me money?
• Will Solar Panels add Value to my Home and build Equity?
• Is it a bad idea to buy a house near power lines? Is it safe to buy a house near high tension powerlines?
• What is the Case-Schiller Index?
• Investors can make money on foreclosures - can you?
• Should I buy a home with electric heat? How much will my heating bill be with electric heat?

About Matt Heisler

Matt Heisler is a real-estate professional and owner of this website. He has been selling homes in MA for buyers and sellers for over 20 years. He is an expert in foreclosure purchases, short-sale purchases, short-sale sales, buy and hold investing, fix and flip investing, and of course traditional residential home sales. He is happy to take questions as they pertain to real estate on Title V, Radon, Termites, Sump Pumps, Roofs, Foundations, Wells, Septic Systems, Cash-Flow, Staging, and a host of other housing issues. As a Vanderbilt University alumnus, he is proud to serve his local community.

Do Good Things Today! Matt Heisler

*All information is posted in good faith and is assumed to be reliable, but may rely on third party information sources.

Overview of the Northbridge, MA Housing Market

Well, it looks like not all Home Sellers of Metrowest are enjoying 2012. Northbridge continues to suffer under the weight of the new construction that is creating supply the buyers can't seem to eat through. Homes for Sale increase another 9 homes for this period, while sales are stagnating around the low fifties for two reports in a row. That imbalance creates a drag on prices, and we see $/sq foot falling sharply. Market time is up in both categories over the Metrowest average, showing that sales are slow. Buyers should have some good choices in Northbridge, and the falling prices will likely rebound when the new construction developments finish selling,

At least the bank-owned inventory is getting better. Foreclosures are steady, and short sales are down, showing some improvement in this area, which will help when inventory (the homes for sale) tightens up.

Northbridge, MA Real Estate For Sale and Sold Market Statistics - Raw MLS Data

• There are 93 homes (Vs. 84 in the last Northbridge Home Sales Report) listed as For Sale.
• There have been 51 houses sold in the last 6 months, and 32 homes sold (Vs 26) in the last 3 months.
• There was an Average Market Time of 148 days for just SOLD homes.
• There is an Average Market Time of 226 days of the homes For Sale.
• The Dollars paid per Square Foot in Northbridge is $140 (vs.$147 )
• There was an Average Sold Price of $281,762 for sold homes.
• Northbridge has 3 properties (vs. 3) advertised as lender owned/foreclosure (typically foreclosure) .
• Northbridge has 6 properties (vs. 8) advertised as a shortsale is going to be needed by lender .
• Northbridge “Hot Seller Index” (HSI): 64 Last Report: 67

*All statistics are for Single Family Houses and based on data in MLS.

Read my Explanation for Massachusetts Home Data Reports.

Our Most Requested Posts

• How do I get the seller to pay my closing costs, and is it free money?
• What do I need to know about Heat Pumps? Will they save me money?
• Will Solar Panels add Value to my Home and build Equity?
• Is it a bad idea to buy a house near power lines? Is it safe to buy a house near high tension powerlines?
• What is the Case-Schiller Index?
• Investors can make money on foreclosures - can you?
• Should I buy a home with electric heat? How much will my heating bill be with electric heat?

About Matt Heisler

Matt Heisler is a real-estate professional and owner of this website. He has been selling homes in MA for buyers and sellers for over 20 years. He is an expert in foreclosure purchases, short-sale purchases, short-sale sales, buy and hold investing, fix and flip investing, and of course traditional residential home sales. He is happy to take questions as they pertain to real estate on Title V, Radon, Termites, Sump Pumps, Roofs, Foundations, Wells, Septic Systems, Cash-Flow, Staging, and a host of other housing issues. As a Vanderbilt University alumnus, he is proud to serve his local community.

Do Good Things Today! Matt Heisler

*All information is posted in good faith and is assumed to be reliable, but may rely on third party information sources.

The story of the local markets plays out on a bigger stage

Wanted to make sure everyone saw this post on Bloomberg, which I thought was a good look at what's happening across the country.

For those of you who are regular readers, you know that the market has been much better than perhaps what the papers and the National News Media have been saying. It's not their fault, really, they are looking at National numbers and I just have to write about what I see here, both anecdotally and with the statistics that back it up. And Massachusetts has been ahead of the pack, both from when we went into the housing decline, and when we came out of it. At any rate, using excerpts from the above piece, I thought I'd show the similarities between their reporting and what we're seeing here.  All quotes are from the piece on Bloomberg.

"Real estate agents, who spent the six-year U.S. housing collapse coaxing buyers off the fence, are now hunting for sellers as home inventories hover near lows last seen in 2005".

Many towns in Metrowest have struggled to maintain inventory levels for buyers, and now this is starting to show up across the country. It's old news here though, as inventory levels actually dropped as far back as 2007, and continued to decrease a little bit more each year since.

"The places where the market is most competitive -- like Washington, D.C., Phoenix and San Francisco -- are where sales volume is actually declining,” Redfin Chief Executive Officer Glenn Kelman said in a telephone interview from Seattle, where his company’s based. “The limiting factor on sales volume isn’t a lack of buyers. It’s a lack of sellers."

I did a larger piece on this at one point, where I discuss that normally, looking at housing transactions is useful, but not in this market where so many folks are underwater. This is a scenario playing out nationally at this point as well.

"The average person who bought in the last decade would lose money on a sale, because home prices have plunged to October 2002 levels, the S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 U.S. cities shows. About 11.1 million homeowners have negative equity, or owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth, which limits their mobility, according to ... real estate data provider CoreLogic Inc. (CLGX)"

Home prices are about 2003-2004 levels in Metrowest, a little better than the National Case-Schiller numbers, but transactions are really held up by not just people who are underwater, but those whose homes have just declined in value. I talk with people every week who say they aren't going anywhere until prices "recover". That's going to be a while, and that's why inventories will stay tight for years.

"In Florida, the state with the largest share of homes in the foreclosure pipeline, median prices are rising and transactions have declined for bank-owned homes. That defies predictions the state would face a flood of distressed properties, according to John Tuccillo, chief economist for the Florida Association of Realtors".

I've been looking for signs of the "Shadow Inventory" - the flood of homes that are going to hit the market - in every report I write for a year. There's been scant evidence that things have worsened, certainly not noticeably. Turns out, that's not just in MA, but also in Florida, where I would have expected it. I think the banks are doing a better job than people think of disposing disappointing assets, but the pundits aren't noticing (or believing) the banks (and for good reason). Regardless, things are better than anticipated on this front, and if things improve, we should see price increases.

I think a real turning point has been that Worcester itself seems to being tipping back to a neutral market, with sales outpacing actives. That tells me there's growing optimism, rising rents, and little to buy East of Worcester. As prices in Worcester stabilize, it will put pressure on prices all the way to Middlesex County.

Hope you found this helpful!

Overview of the Natick Housing Market

Well it looks like the dearth (that means lack of) homes for sale in Natick is finally eating away at the torrid market. The HSI fell to a (still totally scalding) 113 from the 136 level that it's been at for two reports in a row. But sellers of homes in Natick need not worry - the market is just as hot as it's ever been. With a DOM of 72 days (dropping another 10%) if you're home is priced right, it's G-O-N-E.

Amazingly, I'm not seeing prices go up as much as they should be - but maybe we won't see those price increases until the closes at the end of June (we're looking at Nov-April's closing prices in this report as the most recent). Having trouble selling? You shouldn't be. Having trouble buying? Get aggressive - or end up with no house.

No change on the foreclosure short-sale market - still no evidence of the "shadow inventory" coming home to roost in Metrowest. Natick is actually a town that could use some inventory, so if there are some foreclosures coming, I hope they happen in Natick soon.

Natick Housing Market Statistics - Raw MLS Data

• There are 87 homes (vs. 57 in the last Natick Homes For Sale Report) listed as For Sale.
• There have been 159 houses sold (vs. 152) in the last 6 months, and 93 homes sold (vs. 85) in the last 3 months.
• There was an Average Market Time of 72 days (vs. 80) for just SOLD homes.
• There is an Average Market Time of 108 days of the homes For Sale.
• The Dollars paid per Square Foot in Natick is $226 (vs. $228 )
• There was an Average Sold Price of $436,432 for sold homes.
• Natick, MA has 1 properties (vs. 1) advertised as lender owned/foreclosure (typically foreclosure) .
• Natick, MA has 3 properties (vs. 3) advertised as short sale is going to be needed by lender .
• Natick, MA “Hot Seller Index” (HSI): 113 Last Report: 136

*All statistics are for Single Family Houses and based on data in MLS.

Read my Explanation for Massachusetts Home Data Reports.

Our Most Accessed Posts

• How do I get the seller to pay my closing costs, and is it free money?
• What do I need to know about Heat Pumps? Will they save me money?
• Will Solar Panels add Value to my Home and build Equity?
• Is it a bad idea to buy a house near power lines? Is it safe to buy a house near high tension powerlines?
• What is the Case-Schiller Index?
• Investors can make money on foreclosures - can you?
• Should I buy a home with electric heat? How much will my heating bill be with electric heat?

About Matt Heisler

Matt Heisler is a real-estate professional and owner of this website. He has been selling homes in MA for buyers and sellers for over 20 years. He is an expert in foreclosure purchases, short-sale purchases, short-sale sales, buy and hold investing, fix and flip investing, and of course traditional residential home sales. He is happy to take questions as they pertain to real estate on Title V, Radon, Termites, Sump Pumps, Roofs, Foundations, Wells, Septic Systems, Cash-Flow, Staging, and a host of other housing issues. As a Vanderbilt University alumnus, he is proud to serve his local community.

Do Good Things Today! Matt Heisler

*All information is posted in good faith and is assumed to be reliable, but may rely on third party information sources.

Overview of the Millis Housing Market

This is actually a pretty healthy report for Millis. The HSI jumped 8 points, to 76 which says "neutral" market, but there's 10 pendings - about 22% of the market - that are going to dramatically shift the balance in the way the HSI is calculated going forward, as we've seen in the other towns. So the HSI is probably closer to 85, which would make sense against the backdrop of the 132 Days that the average house is sitting on the market looking for a buyer. Bottom line - houses are moving quickly in Millis, but not as quickly as some other towns - giving an option for buyers who are getting frazzled in Ashland, Hopkinton, and Natick.

Still no foreclosures in Millis (that's good for sellers), but 8 short-sales? That's a big number. Buyers may want to look closely at those properties, as they are getting overlooked by enough buyers that if you're in a position to wait for the short-sale, you may get some real value that way.

Millis Housing Market Statistics - Raw MLS Data

• There are 46 homes (vs. 34 in the last Millis Real Estate for Sale Report) listed as For Sale.
• There have been 33 houses sold (vs. 34) in the last 6 months, and 23 homes sold (vs. 13) in the last 3 months.
• There was an Average Market Time of 132 days for just SOLD homes.
• There is an Average Market Time of 145 days of the homes For Sale.
• The Dollars paid per Square Foot in Millis is $167 (vs. $165 )
• There was an Average Sold Price of $309,591 for sold homes.
• Millis, MA has 0 properties (vs. zero) advertised as lender owned/foreclosure (typically foreclosure) .
• Millis, MA has 8 properties advertised (vs. 4) as short sale is going to be needed by lender .
• Millis, MA “Hot Seller Index” (HSI): 76 Last Report: 68

*All statistics are for Single Family Houses and based on data in MLS.

Read my Explanation for Massachusetts Home Data Reports.

Our Most Accessed Posts

• How do I get the seller to pay my closing costs, and is it free money?
• What do I need to know about Heat Pumps? Will they save me money?
• Will Solar Panels add Value to my Home and build Equity?
• Is it a bad idea to buy a house near power lines? Is it safe to buy a house near high tension powerlines?
• What is the Case-Schiller Index?
• Investors can make money on foreclosures - can you?
• Should I buy a home with electric heat? How much will my heating bill be with electric heat?

About Matt Heisler

Matt Heisler is a real-estate professional and owner of this website. He has been selling homes in MA for buyers and sellers for over 20 years. He is an expert in foreclosure purchases, short-sale purchases, short-sale sales, buy and hold investing, fix and flip investing, and of course traditional residential home sales. He is happy to take questions as they pertain to real estate on Title V, Radon, Termites, Sump Pumps, Roofs, Foundations, Wells, Septic Systems, Cash-Flow, Staging, and a host of other housing issues. As a Vanderbilt University alumnus, he is proud to serve his local community.

Do Good Things Today! Matt Heisler

*All information is posted in good faith and is assumed to be reliable, but may rely on third party information sources.

Medfield, MA Housing Market Statistics Overview

What looks like a steady-as-she-goes report for Medfield is a bit deceiving. As we've noted in a few other towns, this time of year there can be a quick change in the numbers. A glance at the pending homes sales shows 20 of the 77 active properties are already under agreement, and that means big changes will be happening in this report going forward. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see the HSI jump above 90 at that time. So with that said, buyers should be acutely aware that there are buyers very actively working the market, and sellers should be aware that if they haven't had an offer in 45 days, they are probably priced too high, or need to resolve some issues. Make no mistake, buyers are making offers in Medfield. Prices look stable!

Foreclosures continue to be non-existing in Medfield, and Medfield short-sales are similarly in short supply, and shrinking, not growing. Other than that tidbit, no news on the bank impacted homes for sale in Medfield.

Medfield, MA Housing Market Statistics - Raw MLS Data

• There are 77 homes (vs. 57 in the last Medfield homes for Sale Report) listed as For Sale.
• There have been 79 houses sold (vs. 66) in the last 6 months, and 51 homes sold (vs. 38) in the last 3 months.
• There was an Average Market Time of 138 days for just SOLD homes.
• There is an Average Market Time of 131 days of the homes For Sale.
• The Dollars paid per Square Foot in Medfield is $226 (vs. $226)
• There was an Average Sold Price of $592,628 for sold homes.
• Medfield has 0 properties (vs. zero) advertised as lender owned/foreclosure (typically foreclosure) .
• Medfield has 3 properties (vs. 4) advertised as short sale is going to be needed by lender .
• Medfield, MA “Hot Seller Index” (HSI): 83 Last Report: 79

*All statistics are for Single Family Houses and based on data in MLS.

Read my Explanation for Massachusetts Home Data Reports.

Our Most Accessed Posts

• How do I get the seller to pay my closing costs, and is it free money?
• What do I need to know about Heat Pumps? Will they save me money?
• Will Solar Panels add Value to my Home and build Equity?
• Is it a bad idea to buy a house near power lines? Is it safe to buy a house near high tension powerlines?
• What is the Case-Schiller Index?
• Investors can make money on foreclosures - can you?
• Should I buy a home with electric heat? How much will my heating bill be with electric heat?

About Matt Heisler

Matt Heisler is a real-estate professional and owner of this website. He has been selling homes in MA for buyers and sellers for over 20 years. He is an expert in foreclosure purchases, short-sale purchases, short-sale sales, buy and hold investing, fix and flip investing, and of course traditional residential home sales. He is happy to take questions as they pertain to real estate on Title V, Radon, Termites, Sump Pumps, Roofs, Foundations, Wells, Septic Systems, Cash-Flow, Staging, and a host of other housing issues. As a Vanderbilt University alumnus, he is proud to serve his local community.

Do Good Things Today! Matt Heisler

*All information is posted in good faith and is assumed to be reliable, but may rely on third party information sources.

A's and Orioles show the Sox Problems May be Here to Stay

Despite the Sox struggles in April, my last Sox post was tinged with optimism. The hitting would be there. The starters would settle in. The bullpen would get straightened out. And there's been signs that some of those things were coming to pass, but the results, to put it mildly, have been disastrous. Talking about contention in the AL East at this juncture seems like fantasy. So instead, we'll try to assess the where and why of the Sox's troubles, and try to gain some perspective on what's ahead.

Hitters: MIA or LOST.

This is really going to be the shortest section. The reason is, for the most part, the hitting, despite all the injuries and issues, is not their problem. Gonzales has looked woeful of late - positively embarrassing really - and the 'fun' of struggling in Boston as a major star is coming home to roost. Although he had a couple of power outages last year, he remained a productive hitter all season, and people were satisfied. There were plenty of goats anyway to take shots at. But a slow start this year that is devolving into an epic slump means the pressure to perform - to fix it - is already heavy on his shoulders. I expect this will either break him or make him better. He will need to deal with this, so he might as well get used to it. Stars struggle too - witness Pujols power outage this year with his new team - but you either get tougher, (like Ortiz) or crumble (too many to mention).

Clearly, he's far from the only issue: missing Ellsbury, an ineffective or hurt Youkillis, no Crawford, you're talking about 40% of the lineup basically not being at it's best. That's a lot of talent riding the bench. And yet, the Sox are 2nd in the AL in runs scored, and 5th in MLB. Now I'll head to the front of the bus and shout they aren't getting clutch hits, but they are hitting. So this is not where we need to focus.

Bullpen: Back from the dead

The bullpen is pitching better. Aceves looks to have settled in and found a groove, and he looks like he could really turn some heads. You could argue he was their best pitcher over the last few days. In a similar vein, Albers, Atchinson, Hill, and Mortensen are currently pitching quite well, have earned larger roles in the bullpen and are getting the call. Woeful to start the season, things are getting settled, and they might actually end up with a very solid pen if Bailey can come back and be effective, and Melancon (remember him?) returns to form, as he seems to have down in AAA. Which brings us to:

Are the Sox really without starting pitching?

Do I dare call it the Varitek effect? Had the Sox become so dependent on his preparation and rapport with the starters that the vacuum that was left has sucked everyone into a tailspin? Here's what we have so far:

Bard: 4.38

Beckett:4.45

Lester:4.62

Dubront:5.91

Buckholz : 9.09

Yes, you're reading those numbers right. Bard is STILL your best starter. And basically if the home team doesn't score 5 or 6 runs, it's not enough to win. Lester typically has slow starts, so we can project he'll improve. Bard will likely get worse (gulp), as the scouting gets better on him, and hitters make adjustments. Same for Dubront. I hope Beckett gets better, but he may not - he's far from a lock. And if anyone can figure out what Buckholz is doing wrong (other than finding too many bats), please let me know. Here's what I do know - with this type of starting rotation, you're not going to win many games. Dubront is headed to Pawtucket when Dice-K returns, and Buckholz needs to watch his back. I'm no Cook fan, but no team will let a starter post a 7.00 ERA for long. I'd like to cut him some slack - he didn't pitch half of last year because he broke his back, and it looks like he's trying to protect it (his velocity is down). But if he doesn't get more aggressive and/or more effective, he won't have a career to protect. I've seen plenty of Clay to know he's got enough talent to be the Ace of this staff - but does he have the mental makeup? This question has dogged him since the minors, and a major injury and a poor makeup can shorten promising careers.

Something is going on down in the Fens. Either the pitchers are not physically prepared, mentally prepared, or just don't have their minds in the competitive frame they need to gut out wins when they don't have their best stuff. Is it merely a matter of adjusting to the new trainers and manager in the post-Theo environment? Learning who is to take charge without the stewardship of Varitek? Those questions and more are on the table. Here's what I do know - they need to figure it out fast, or it'll be a long season for the local nine.