A's and Orioles show the Sox Problems May be Here to Stay

Despite the Sox struggles in April, my last Sox post was tinged with optimism. The hitting would be there. The starters would settle in. The bullpen would get straightened out. And there's been signs that some of those things were coming to pass, but the results, to put it mildly, have been disastrous. Talking about contention in the AL East at this juncture seems like fantasy. So instead, we'll try to assess the where and why of the Sox's troubles, and try to gain some perspective on what's ahead.

 

Hitters: MIA or LOST.

This is really going to be the shortest section. The reason is, for the most part, the hitting, despite all the injuries and issues, is not their problem. Gonzales has looked woeful of late - positively embarrassing really - and the 'fun' of struggling in Boston as a major star is coming home to roost. Although he had a couple of power outages last year, he remained a productive hitter all season, and people were satisfied. There were plenty of goats anyway to take shots at. But a slow start this year that is devolving into an epic slump means the pressure to perform - to fix it - is already heavy on his shoulders. I expect this will either break him or make him better. He will need to deal with this, so he might as well get used to it. Stars struggle too - witness Pujols power outage this year with his new team - but you either get tougher, (like Ortiz) or crumble (too many to mention).

 

Clearly, he's far from the only issue: missing Ellsbury, an ineffective or hurt Youkillis, no Crawford, you're talking about 40% of the lineup basically not being at it's best. That's a lot of talent riding the bench. And yet, the Sox are 2nd in the AL in runs scored, and 5th in MLB. Now I'll head to the front of the bus and shout they aren't getting clutch hits, but they are hitting. So this is not where we need to focus.

 

Bullpen: Back from the dead

The bullpen is pitching better. Aceves looks to have settled in and found a groove, and he looks like he could really turn some heads. You could argue he was their best pitcher over the last few days. In a similar vein, Albers, Atchinson, Hill, and Mortensen are currently pitching quite well, have earned larger roles in the bullpen and are getting the call. Woeful to start the season, things are getting settled, and they might actually end up with a very solid pen if Bailey can come back and be effective, and Melancon (remember him?) returns to form, as he seems to have down in AAA. Which brings us to:

 

Are the Sox really without starting pitching?

Do I dare call it the Varitek effect? Had the Sox become so dependent on his preparation and rapport with the starters that the vacuum that was left has sucked everyone into a tailspin? Here's what we have so far:

 

Tickets will be easy to Get if the Sox don't

pitch better.  Even hard core fans watch from home when

you're in last place.

Bard: 4.38

Beckett:4.45

Lester:4.62

Dubront:5.91

Buckholz : 9.09

 

Yes, you're reading those numbers right. Bard is STILL your best starter. And basically if the home team doesn't score 5 or 6 runs, it's not enough to win. Lester typically has slow starts, so we can project he'll improve. Bard will likely get worse (gulp), as the scouting gets better on him, and hitters make adjustments. Same for Dubront. I hope Beckett gets better, but he may not - he's far from a lock. And if anyone can figure out what Buckholz is doing wrong (other than finding too many bats), please let me know. Here's what I do know - with this type of starting rotation, you're not going to win many games. Dubront is headed to Pawtucket when Dice-K returns, and Buckholz needs to watch his back. I'm no Cook fan, but no team will let a starter post a 7.00 ERA for long. I'd like to cut him some slack - he didn't pitch half of last year because he broke his back, and it looks like he's trying to protect it (his velocity is down). But if he doesn't get more aggressive and/or more effective, he won't have a career to protect. I've seen plenty of Clay to know he's got enough talent to be the Ace of this staff - but does he have the mental makeup? This question has dogged him since the minors, and a major injury and a poor makeup can shorten promising careers.

 

Something is going on down in the Fens. Either the pitchers are not physically prepared, mentally prepared, or just don't have their minds in the competitive frame they need to gut out wins when they don't have their best stuff. Is it merely a matter of adjusting to the new trainers and manager in the post-Theo environment? Learning who is to take charge without the stewardship of Varitek? Those questions and more are on the table. Here's what I do know - they need to figure it out fast, or it'll be a long season for the local nine.