Sept. 29, 2011
There will be many who say it wasn't supposed to end this way. There will be many who look at the season numbers for the hitters years from now and say "How did it happen?". Many who will talk about Jacoby's MVP season whether or not he gets the award. The disappointment, the opportunity lost will not be lost on a fandom that follows the team as close as this one does.
Through the first five months of the season, the Sox were 83-52. If they had limped through a .500 September, they would have been 97-65. 97 Wins is a hell of a season, anyway you slice it, especially in the AL East. They make the playoffs, beat the Yankees for the division (assuming one extra win in those .500 comes against the Yankees.) Everyone celebrates. There would be worries, with such a poor stretch of play, but we would focus on playoffs and the division win as good things.
Instead, they implode, going 7-20 down the stretch, and losing the division, the wild card, a chance at redemption, and a whole lotta respect. The last game of the season was a microcosm of the whole month - other than watching Lackey get beat around the mound - with a overaggressive base-running error (playing for one run - not their strength), lots of men left on base and unable to get the key hit, a key defensive miscue, and an exhausted bullpen. They played well until the rain delay and then the wheels came off. In September, when they hit, they gave up too many runs. When the starters were good, the bullpen wasn't. When the bullpen was good, the starters weren't. When they pitched and hit well, errors did them in.
In my last couple of posts, looking at the pitching, the injuries and just the overall execution I felt they weren't going anywhere in the playoffs. But I'm not at the point where I think it's better this way, to have ended so soon. It's not. Unfortunately, we'll have a lot of time to reflect on what happened. But there were some easy to identify issues at this point.
Primary Red Sox Issues with No Resolution
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Historic Collapse Brings Many Questions
to the Red Sox
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Only two guys fall in this category. Carl Crawford and John Lackey. Lackey has me feeling the way the Yankees must when they signed Carl Pavano (who had the decency to be hurt his entire contract) or AJ Burnett. His two year career with the Sox has been nothing short of disastrous, and we're stuck with at least one more year, probably two, of watching him gut out bad start after bad start. (His contract is longer but I'm assuming A) he gets better, B) he gets released ) There's nothing positive to say here about his season, which was the worst of any Red Sox starter ever. If it wasn't for his contract and injuries (mostly contract) he would have been in Pawtucket or the bullpen by August 1st. I don't see how he could be WORSE next year. So maybe that's a bright spot. Others may have had high expectations, but for myself I just expected 200 innings at 4.3 ERA. That's it - an inning eating machine with a .500 record. This year we got a 160 innings of a 6.41 ERA. I'd put that in context, but there is no context to put it - it's that bad. On any other team, he ends up with a 3-21 record. The Sox hit for him though, unlike Beckett, so he ends up 12-12.
Crawford remains a mystery to me. Like Lackey, he's on a short list of "worst seasons ever had by a Red Sox starter". Basically, it's a list you don't want to be on. His contract was untradeable at the start, like Lackey's, and the only bright spot here is that this year could just be an outlier. A do-over. Hitters normally return to averages. Only the Sox and Crawford know what happened. Did they try to change his approach at the plate? Did he try to change it, only to realize he couldn't change it back? Is he unable to forget about yesterday and focus on today? Is he mentally unfit to play at Fenway? The fans gave him a pass this year. Drunk on the knowledge that he could probably scuffle all year and it wouldn't matter, the cruel eye of Fenway searching for non-contributors stayed fixed on Lackey and scarcely rested on the troubled left-fielder. There is no chance that will happen next year, if he continues to play like a 40 year old Vladimir Guerrero.
Important Red Sox Issues with Some Potential Resolution
Dice K: A truism of any sport is that if you get hurt early enough in the season, people forget you were ever expected to contribute. Well, as noted here on the blog, Dice-K was a major loss. He look better than he had in years (and the numbers prove it), when he blew out his elbow, and basically ended his tenure with the Sox. Will he pitch for them in the second-half next year? I don't know. With Scott Boras as his agent, he'll pitch if Boras thinks he needs to showcase his player for free agency, and not play if Boras thinks the market will be better if he remains a "wildcard". Those tea leaves have not been read yet, and only next year will we know. But these are the facts: Dice-K's career numbers would have been welcome relief down the stretch for the Sox, and I for one would still be thinking about pennants were he still on the roster. With little left on his contract (a paltry $6 million or so is owed to him), he is tradeable, and with it already known he won't be ready for the start of the season there's a roster spot open. Aceves, this may be your moment - you've earned it.
Papelbon: He's headed to free agency. Another Boras client, after what Boras will no doubt claim as a Mo Rivera-like season, he's getting 3-4 years at $8-10 million per. And it won't be from the Red Sox. They have a strategy of relying on the farm system to grow talented closers, and Bard will get a crack at it next year, and if that doesn't work it'll be Jenks (who also got hurt early enough that people forget he could have been a difference maker. They win last nights game - and a couple of others - this month with a healthy Jenks.). Closers are replaceable, but I will miss him, and I have no illusions that his replacement will be better - just sufficient.
Wakefield: Wakes numbers slipped this year. Not much but they slipped. Why mention it? Because Wake is the most eerily consistent pitcher I've ever looked at numbers-wise. I love the irony that the most inconsistent of pitches - the knuckleball - is responsible for the most dependable numbers in the game. Wake knows now that he's a bullpen guy unless there's injury, and after this year he's got to be wondering if it's time to hang them up. If it was his last year, even though he was never a Cy Young candidate, that quirky knuckleball was the source of so many stories (Doug Mirabelli police escort), so many highs (I was at the game where he pitched 8 1/3 no hit) , so many lows (the Boone HR in the ALCS in 2003), and the uniqueness of watching a guy through a 65 mph pitch past the best hitters in the world, he will be missed.
Important Red Sox Issues on the Back Burner
There are solutions for the team in these areas already. But they aren't closed areas for the team to work on. Clay Buckholz - can he return and give them a full season? Josh Beckett - can he pitch in an even number year? John Lester - can he continue to improve - and keep the staff on track. Josh Reddick: He's earned the RF start, even though he's left handed, and issue for this club. He'll be a 7-8 hitter in next years projected line-up, and I hope he stays. He brought a lot of youthful exuberance to the team, and I think his star is bright. Ryan Lavarnway/Jason Varitek: Sox have a decision to make here. The future is clearly a Salty and Lavarnway tandem (assuming they can't trade up), and I'm not sure who'll get the most starts two years from now. It's still early to wonder if you can bring up Lavarnway, but I don't think he has anything left to prove in Pawtucket, and he could be a game-changer for the Sox. Varitek has a serviceable season - .300 OBP and .721 OPS for a backup catcher, but he was tough to watch down the stretch, and I'm not sure you can give him 68 games again. Kevin Youkilis: Kevin is a workout machine and was in shape for this season - like any other. But his injuries are notable for their severity and location. Ruptured disks are bad. The Sox weren't the same without him in the lineup, and the fact that he's the best right handed hitter on the team is a major concern. Lowrie/Scutaro: Scutaro ended up playing another solid year for the Sox, as Lowrie failed to stay healthy again. He's at the end of his contract, not sure where we go from here. Pitching Coach: Four words: Find a New One.
This post is already overly long, and there's more to write, but it'll wait - I've got until February to write it.
Do Good Things Today!
Matt Heisler
*All information is posted in good faith and is assumed to be reliable, but may rely on third party information sources.
