Sox Faced Tough Start

Good Starts or Bad Starts, I always like to keep an eye on the RPI that ESPN produces. (You can find it here). The RPI, as in most sports, tries to assess how "difficult" your schedule has been and factors in that difficulty when looking at your record to see how "good" the various teams might be. This is not power rankings - which are typically based on opinions and casual glances at the standings. This is all math - and has been an excellent indicator of who's for real and who's not. It's based, primarily on wins and losses, so with the Sox still under .500, you'd think they'd be near the bottom or in the middle.

 

But they are seventh. Hardly stellar, but they have achieved that RPI based on the simple fact that based on all the teams records as they are today, they have played the toughest schedule in MLB. Seventh, and they still aren't really hitting yet, but they are at least average offensively at the moment.  But they look to be heating up.

 

Let's be honest here: Gonzales has an OPS of .770. Crawford has an OBP of .218. And Youkilis has an average of .222. That's not going to continue. All three have shown signs of heating up, and when that happens there's going to be a lot of fatigued pitchers out there, and some comfortable leads for the local nine. I'm not even going to review Ellsbury, Scutaro, Salty, and even Cameron as guys that are all well, well, below career averages. Only Lowrie (predicted on these pages to take Scutaro's place) has exceeded expectations, and he won't hit .400, but I think he's going to finish with an OPS above .900 this year.

 

Yanks Look Strong - at least for Now

The Yankees are the class of the division. With a +25 RS/RA they far and away have played the best. But I think they are probably playing their best baseball, and, as we all know, they may revert to the mean sooner, rather than later.

A-rod: 1.228 OPS (career .960)

Russell Martin: 1.047 OPS (career: .746)

Granderson: 1.043 OPS (career: .827)

Yeah, I think there's going to be some adjustments here. These guys have nowhere to go but down.

 

Could the Orioles Be a Threat?  Only to My Shrubs.

Only Jeter (much discussed on these pages) and Gardner look like they should improve - but I think Jeter probably won't improve much.  

 

Fortunately for the Yankees, if/when the hitting slumps, I'm sure the pitching will take up the slack and the Yankees will cruise to 95 wins.

 

Not likely. I don't think Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon will finish the season with ERA's under 4.5.(Currently they are both under 3.5). Nova, like most rookies, will be up and down. I think Hughes is done for the year. Even the vaunted Yankee bullpen is walking a tightrope. Can the Yank's go out and trade for a starter? Sure. Two? I mean, two quality starters to keep chugging? I doubt it. Let's face it - the Yankees true strength is free agency pickups. Trades are not their forte. Enjoy the view from the top of the standings New York fans. You won't be there long.

 

 

 

 

 

Do Good Things Today!

 

 Matt Heisler