Red Sox Lineup Predictions

Hardest Lineup to Predict in Years for Boston Red Sox

 

This is always one of my favorite Sox posts to write. I usually write it well before spring training, as there isn't too much mystery involved. But this year, we have position log jams, lots of new faces with no MLB track record, and no good way to solve some of the issues. Ultimately, Cherrington will be looking to deal one, or perhaps two players, and maybe we'll get to thinking about that later in the post. On to the guesswork!

 

 

Boston Red Sox: Known Quantities

 

These are the guys we KNOW are starting. 5 guys with MLB history too serious to ignore, and two position players where there is no substitute on the roster.

 

Dustin Pedroia (R) (2B) /OBP

Games are underway, April will be here soon.

David Ortiz (L) (DH) /power/OBP

Pablo Sandoval (S) (3B)/Power

Mike Napoli (R) (1B) /Power/ OBP

Hanley Rameriez (R) (LF)

C. Vasquez (R) (C)

X. Boegarts (R) (SS)

 

 

That was easy. Just two more spots to fill. Here's where the problems start.

 

Boston Red Sox: UnKnown Quantities

 

Mookie Betts (R) (CF)

Shane Victorino (S) (RF)

Rusney Castillo (R) (CF/RF)

Allen Craig (R) (1B/OF)

 

Yep, 4 guys for two spots, and not a lefty among them. Looking at this though, you can see why Farrell was so quick to anoint Victorino to RF. Betts is the only "proven" lead off hitter in the group, and that could be reversed in twenty games with a slow start.

 

 

Boston Red Sox: Role Players

 

Brock Holt (L) (inf)

Daniel Nava (L) (outfield)- formerely a starter and switch hitter, team has pushed for him to be a platoon player from the left, where they need him.

 

Sorry to see you go:

Will Middlebrooks. Bye Will. I still hope you learn to hit the other way and get on the field.

 

 

Enough stalling. Best Prediction

The Sox are almost hoping they get an injury to help smooth this out. But if they don't, here's what they'll have to do.

 

 

1. Shane Victorino (S) (RF)
Victorino's "lighting in a bottle" season is probably not going to happen again. A reasonable expectation would be a .320 OBP - not really good enough for leadoff. But with Pedroia a more difficult out this year, this could be good enough. Some left/right flexibility here. As soon as he goes down to injury, Mookie comes in to fill the gap. Mookie doesn't get the start, because he's got options. He doesn't have anything to prove in AAA, and it would be a disappointment, but he did get the Majors AWFUL fast. He was a hot bat on a bad team - if the Sox get off to a good start, he'd be one of the more attacked hitters. There's no denying what Mookie Betts brought last year. Excitement. Quality at bats. A feel for the moment. But he wouldn't be the first guy to regress when the teams get some tendency data on him.
2. Dustin Pedroia (R) (2B) Avg/OBP
Dustin clearly thinks MVP 2 is in the cards. Here's hoping he can stay healthy enough to shove it in our faces. If he does have a big season, the whole line up goes from dangerous to fearsome.
3. David Ortiz (L) (DH) avg/power/OBP
His job till he loses it, and he's done nothing to lose it.
4. Pablo Sandoval (S) (3B)/Power
The classic clean up bat, and the switch hitting gives Ortiz all sorts of protection. He's here to knock 'em in.
5. Mike Napoli (R) (1B) /Power/ OBP
Mike isn't young, but he's a motivated player who just seems to "get" Boston. I think he likes playing here. When he's hot, he carries a team. He dangerous even when not hitting well. I think at this point, Sandoval is a more feared hitter, as Napoli strikes out plenty, about 50-60% more than Pablo.
6. Hanley Rameriez (R) (LF)
Only Hanley knows what he will contribute this year. He had an amazing, if short, 2013 season (80+ games). But otherwise has not been much of a standout over the past four or five years. His next best year featured an OPS at .853 in 2010, and that's not really setting the world on fire. He's a quality at bat. The Sox are thinking to protect him physically in left, and maybe the bat comes around. Also, Hanley was known as a "big market" performer. The pressure of Fenway to produce may juice (bad word, I know) his performance. By June, Hanley could be batting clean-up and make me look pretty dumb. Or by July he could be traded and make me look equally dumb. Even hitting lead-off isn't out of the question. I do know this: He will be the more interesting stories to follow this spring. Why behind Napoli? Hanley has good splits against righties, making him a tougher out just by switching arms. Napoli less so - he struggles more against righties.
7. X. Boegarts (R) (SS)
Is this the year for Xander Boegarts? We will see. Like Pedroia, if he gets his potential flowing, SCARY lineup.
8. C. Vasquez (R) (C)
Note to all Baserunners on opposing teams. Good luck. Vasquez is so good defensively, no one cares about his bat. But you still get the sense he's keeping the seat warm for Swihart.
9. Rusney Castillo (R) (CF/RF)
No, Castillo doesn't belong down here. But Farrell will - wisely - protect him at the bottom somewhere, and he's got better speed to be #9. If he hits, gets comfortable, and shakes off his first slump, he'll be moving on up, but I'll bet he starts here.  The Sox are comfortable he'll hit, and hit with some power.  But how will he fare against the better righties?  Will he run into outs? Try to pull everything? Pressure does strange things to a man, and we're about to see what it does to Castillo.  He has options, but if the Sox wanted him in the minors they wouldn't have signed the contract they did.  They want him on the field.