There's been no shortage of storylines this week from the media.
I have found over the years, that the beginning of a Sox season is always filled with hyperbole, as fans an pundits alike try to draw season wide conclusions from a sample set of games that has barely reached the double digit mark. Another interesting trend is that they also look at just the local 9 - and not league wide - as such a look might show how foolish that increased scrutiny can be.
This season is no different. Certainly, things have not gone as expected, with injuries to Ellsbury, Bailey, and Crawford out longer than expected. But it's easy to lose focus. So let's look at some numbers and see what conclusions, if any, actually confirm the story lines.
Among the various story lines:
1) Bard needs to go to the bullpen.
As of this writing, Bard leads the starters in ERA. That's right, he's their best pitcher right now. Any talk of putting him in the bullpen is not only short-sighted, it's illustrative of desperately people abhor change. He's not lighting the world on fire, but there's no reason to yank the rug out from under him now. If you don't like the way he's pitching, I'd submit you're not watching very closely.
2) The bullpen is a mess.
Bullpens are always a mess, especially early. Hello people, Rivera has a 5.40 ERA at the moment. It happens. A number of pitchers the Sox have are pitching OK, and a couple have been terrible. But it's a little early to be talking about wholesale changes or that they can't get to the all-star break with this bullpen. That's nonsense.
3) Time to relegate Youkilis to the bench and bring up Middlebrooks.
Hey, I'm a big fan of Middlebrooks. But Youkilis is a monster hitter off to a slow start. He's earned his right to play out of it, and I'm sure he will. While we're on the subject, hitting is not the Red Sox problem, they are among the AL leaders in runs and OPS. We've seen evidence of their ability to mash, and although the lineup is a little thin at the moment, it's not their biggest problem.
4) The Sox are doomed.
The Sox are off to a bad start, and a lot of injuries, but there's a whole calvary of help coming down the Pike. Ellsbury, Crawford, Bailey, Dice-K are impact players and they'll be at Fenway sooner than you think, with plenty of games to play. Are people worried the 6-6 Yankees have already taken an insurmountable lead? Or that the Orioles are going to run away with the division? Please.
5) The Yankees are in great shape.
It's early, but their starters are not doing so hot either. Nova is doing the best with a 4.5 ERA. But Garcia and Hughes are looking like they may have long seasons in front of them. The Yankees have some depth at the position, but not a lot of flexibility (what do you do with Hughes if he can't pitch?) on their roster. And I'm not sold that Pineda or Pettite are monster upgrades. And if you think the Sox lineup is in trouble, look down south. A-rod, Teixeira, and Granderson have hit four homers combined (while Jeter has already hit 4 homers). Russel Martin is starting his campaign to be the worst starting catcher in MLB early, hitting .148. But Hey, it's early. The Yankees are better than that, and not every team starts the season the way it ends.
Bottom line is this, the Sox are looking at a 4-8 record because they have pitched poorly against some teams that can rake. Despite this, the RPI that the Sox have on ESPN puts them the 12th best team in the league, but with 5 NL team in front of them, that probably means 8th. (Once interleague games get played, NL teams tend to fall off the RPI standings). Right now, the Sox have the worst pitching in baseball - but I have a hard time thinking they won't pitch better. Good enough to win the division? Not without some better play over the next 20 games, but that's why they play them.
So fans, it's looked ugly, but we're far from hopeless. I see some bright spots on the Horizon.
