April has not been a good month for the dominant teams of the American League East over the last decade.
The Sox start has been nothing short of disastrous. A start so bad it's made National headlines. Conventional wisdom is the Sox have too much talent to continue to be so poor (and have shown signs of at least competing), but with each loss added to the total, it would take a heck of a streak to jump them to the top of the standings before the end of May. At 4-10, a eight game win streak would get them back to five hundred. Yikes.
The Sox have truly imploded, as virtually every starter has either been bad, worse, or terrible. (Notable exceptions: Pedrioa, Beckett and Lester). Carl Crawford (7 of 51) is so far below the Mendoza line he must be dizzy. And if you've seen his at-bats, he looks dizzy. It's still early, but I just don't see Carl succeeding in the leadoff spot. Too much ugly history there. However, moving Carl to the top spot (and bumping Ellsbury) has gotten us very close to my predicted line-up. Francona, please bat Crawford fifth!!
As bad as the Sox have been hitting, the pitching has been far worse. Dice-K has had the worst start, but Lackey has lacked any quality pitches in both his starts, and is starting to looking lost in the East. It's not like I expected him to compete for the Cy Young, but we're in some pretty shaky territory here for a pitcher with a multi-year deal. Buckholz has looked sharp at times, and should round in to form soon (we hope). With three pitchers giving quality starts, the Sox can probably settle down and play some decent ball. The Yanks may not be so fortunate.
At 8-5, all might seem to be well in NY. A-rod is crunching the ball, Texeria has five home runs (even if his April average is returning to it's historical form), Cano and new catcher Martin are hitting and doing well. And no problems to report with CC - on track to have another monster season. But Empire sized problems are already lurking around the team. Hughes, counted on to be the third starter (and the Yanks were short starters to begin with) has been in effective enough to land on the DL. He looks hurt, the drop in his fast ball is alarming, and is probably keeping Cashman up nights. Jeter, he of the $52 Million deal, looks even worse than predicted in this space. Looks like my 100 game prediction for the Sox will go down the tubes, but my Jeter prediction looks dead on. Most of the local media are already clamouring to have Jeter bat ninth - and the Yankee line up can hide him there this year - but if he continues to hit poorly, what do they do next year? Jeter is an icon, and I don't really wish to see a player who has been an Ace on and off the field do badly, but this contract was a mistake for them both, and I think it going to continue to get uglier.
That brings us to the Rays. Their pitching has been tops - but the offense has been worse than anemic. It's even worse than the Sox, and that's saying something. I suspected with the loss of Crawford and Pena, their offense would be problematic. But without Manny (who didn't look all that promising) and Longoria on the shelf (at least for now), there's almost nothing in that lineup to fear. The Rays are young - they have some guys who may grow into some threats - but with a teamwide OPS of .638 - a drop of over .100 points from last year, and they weren't killing the ball then - the Rays are going to have to pitch a lot of shutouts to win games.
Outlook: The Sox are under-performing, but healthy. A run will come soon, probably at the expense of the other teams in the East, which in previous years would be tough to do. But the Yanks and Rays have flaws that don't look to be easily fixed - and could dog them all season long. The Yanks have a lot of punch, but I'm still not convinced that the bottom of the order - Russell, Granderson and Swisher (soon to be Jeter) - is going to put a lot of fear in AL East pitchers. Look for the Yanks to look human on the road, and it should be interesting to see how the back end of the rotation holds up.
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Matt Heisler
