At the moment, the Rotation is settling in.
Good thing, because despite all the hype, they haven't been very good. The starters have an ERA of 4.00 - that's good for 10th in the american league. Chicago, Detroit, and Cleveland are comfortably ahead in starters ERA. Let's see what we can expect.
Off to the numbers:
Lester
This year: 2.33 Career Average: 3.48
Expectations: Lester dodged his usual Awful April with a solid start to the season, and would probably be 6-1 if the bats hadn't been so horrible early. Look for him to compete for a Cy Young this year.
Beckett
This year: 2.92 Career Average: 3.92
Expectations: Beckett similarly has started strong, putting to rest any fears that he doesn't have much in the tank. He looks good and is pitching better. I look forward to watching him pitch tonight (going to the game tonight, by the way).
Buckholz
This year: 4.19 Career Average: 3.73
Expectations: No worries here, Clay's been whacked by the long ball, but for the most part has looked solid. I expect his numbers to improve as we work through the year.
Dice-K
This year: 4.64 Career Average: 4.21
Expectations: I think Dice-K gets a bad rap. Sure, it's painful watching him nibble. But he gets a lot of strikeouts, and his career numbers in a Sox uniform aren't as bad as the fans and media seem to think. Was he worth $100 Million? No, but I bet he's still worth $80. So he's expensive for what you get, but the life on his fastball has been good, and I think he'll have a good year this year.
Lackey
This year: 7.16 Career Average: 3.95 (My Expectation in the AL East: 4.5 ERA, a little worse than last year)
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Josh Beckett Looking for a Win |
Expectations: Lackey won ugly last year. This year, he's looked ugly. I "sorta" understood why the Sox brass picked him up - I thought he'd be a solid innings eater. Sure, he'd probably be 14-12 kinda guy, but you need someone to help eat those innings (Wakefield was that guy for years, and is a risk now to do so), protect the bullpen, and compete. I didn't think he was worth his contract, and I thought he'd suffer in the East as opposed to the West. After all, with few exceptions, the Sox basically walked all over him in the post season when he was with Anaheim. He was no Ace. So my expectations were low. But this? In his second year? We're talking about a major problem if he doesn't right the ship. 6+ ERA is not enough to stay on the Sox. Basically, you can't count on a pitcher at that point, and he won't be eating innings when you're giving him the hook in the fifth inning. I expect the Sox to give him another month and then we'll see if the injury bug bites Lackey. With their slow start, they can't afford to see him pitch like this.
Overall, the Sox starters haven't been that bad. The problem is, the other starters in the league have been good and very good. Cleveland has Masterson and Tomlin pitching great - and they should come back to earth a bit, I don't think Masterson with that delivery is going to compete for the Cy Young, and Tomlin is just in his second year. There's room for improvement for the Sox rotation, but I think what we'll probably see is some hot pitchers cool off in the rest of the league. Last year a 4.00 ERA was good for 6th in the AL, right now it's 10th.
Do Good Things Today!
Matt Heisler
*All information is posted in good faith and is assumed to be reliable, but may rely on third party information sources.
