What a change from year to year.
Last year, with Francona running the team, and all that history behind him, it was relatively easy to project what he might do with the batting order. Injuries and a host of Lefties from the opposition early in the season meant that it was difficult to get it right off the bat, but it was still a lot easier than this year. A week to go, and I feel that although the top third of the line up is set, I expect Bobby Valentine to do some very interesting things as we go along with the bottom half of the lineup. Will he favor hot players over historical success? Will he play players with better defense at the expense of offense? Will he keep the lineup more or less stable - or mix it up like a fruit salad? Will he stick with slumping veterans or have a short leash? With 10 years away from the majors, any and all of these questions are legitimate.
If Crawford was healthy, I'd have to submit two potential batting orders for consideration. But he's not, so on Opening Day this would be my prediction.
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The lineup will likely remain a mystery until Opening Day. |
1. Ellsbury (L) (CF)
2. Pedroia (R) (2B)
3. Gonzales (L) (1B)
4. Ortiz (L) (DH)
5. Youkilis (R) (3B)
6. Ross (R) (RF)//Ryan Sweeney (L) (RF)
7. Salty (S) (C)
8. Aviles (R) (SS)
9. McDonald (LF) (R)
Ok, so here's why:
1) Ellsbury: Well he was the MVP (Yes, you can put me in the camp that a pitcher can't be MVP. That's why they have the Cy Young) in my book hitting out of the top spot. It's his to lose.
2) Pedroia: It's hard to argue hitting him somewhere else.
3) Gonzales: 117 RBI's hitting 3rd says he stays put.
Well, those were the easy ones. Now we must begin to penetrate the Machiavellian nature of Bobby V, to predict the next six.
4) Ortiz: Ortiz was a simply a monster last year, putting up, to me, one his most impressive seasons. His ability to beat up both lefthanders and right handers with power, putting up well over a .900 OPS against each, to me makes him your clean up hitter. This is a break from last year - we know how Francona seemed to emphasize L/R/L, but hitting both sides so well, Ortiz basically minimizes that issue to me. It doesn't hurt that Verlander is a righty.
5) Youkilis: After injury issues in the past several seasons, it's well understood that the Sox aren't the same team without a healthy Youkilis. They need to keep him healthy, and batting fifth instead of clean up should help. It's still a heavy workload, but every little bit helps.
You could, of course, flip 4 and 5 and not too many people would cry foul, at least on opening day. Ortiz managed to escape last season without a major slump - probably for the same reason he could hit lefties - by committing to hitting to all fields. If that continues, he should stay productive in the clean up spot. If he slumps anything like he did in 2010 or 2009, I doubt very much Valentine will keep him there.
Now of course, it gets really dicey for the last four hitters. But here's what I think we'll see.
6) Cody Ross - Ross was brought in as the fourth outfielder, but is called into service as Crawford won't be in the opening day line up. Most think he'll effectively platoon with Ryan Sweeney, and since Sweeney is much better against righties, it's possible that he'll start on opening day. But Ross has had a monster spring, and I bet he stays in as long as he doesn't slump in the next week. Sweeney has not done much this spring, and will likely have to play his way into more lineup time.
7) Saltalammachia: Can you go wrong with a switch hitting catcher in the 7th spot? I say no. A .737 OPS keeps him out of the 8th spot.
8) Mike Aviles: I've been on the blog before about how much of a threat Iglesias was to start at short this year. I hope the scouts are right, and that he can learn to hit major league pitching. But he has shown no evidence that he can, at even a substandard level. I don't care how good his glove is, the Sox Brass know just as well as I if he hits .210 with no power through May the fans will run him out of town, and he'll be lucky to ever put it together again. Too big a risk to take. Making it easier on the Sox has been Aviles outstanding spring. I'd come to really appreciate what Scutaro brought to the plate, but I don't think the drop off will be too bad with Aviles.
9) Darnell McDonald: McDonald is more of a proven commodity to the Sox Brass than Ryan Sweeney, and he has the speed to make a dangerous #9 hitter. But he's never faced Verlander, and Ryan Sweeney has had some moderate success, so it could be that we finish Sweeney/Aviles instead of Aviles/McDonald. I still think Sweeney will need to show something in the final week to get off the bench, but the line up fits better against Verlander and other righties with him in there.
Spring Training Trivia:
Q: With 30 or more AB, who are the top three players in OPS on the 40 man roster this spring?
A: McDonald: 1.415, Cody Ross: 1.115, and Ryan Lavarnway 1.015
McDonald is in one of those hot streaks where no one can get him out, Cody Ross has hit 3 home runs already, and Ryan Lavarnway keeps demonstrating that Kelly Shoppach isn't going to be with the Sox very long. Lavarnway gets my "Jed Lowrie Award" as the player who I predict is just too good to keep on the bench (and thankfully, he doesn't have the injury bug like Jed).
I can't close without discussing the elephant in the room. Crawford. It's easy for me to make the case for the existing lineup, there's a flow to it. Unless one of the top three is in a major slump (and even then, I doubt it), there's still no solution for Crawford. I think the single biggest decision Valentine might make is where he hits Crawford right out of the gate once he's healthy. Does he cater to his clearly stated preference to be at the top of the order, despite the fact he did nothing to earn it (while the other guys did). Does he bat him ninth and risk losing him indefinitely? Does he move everyone around on a day to day basis? This will be a drama worth watching, that's for sure. It won't get easier no matter what Carl does. If he's at the bottom and hits, people will clamor to move him up. If he at the top and doesn't hit, more rancor. It should be fascinating. Of course, trading Ellsbury solves that problem, but that's a subject for a different post.
