Opening Day for Red Sox Starts with Pitching Concerns
Last year, talk was about 100 win season and charging into the World Series. We saw flashes of that team, but injuries to the rotation - and the inability of virtually any of the call up to stay in the game, derailed that talk in spectacular fashion. What will this season hold? The future is promised to no one, but it's fun trying to see how it all shakes out.
Red Sox
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The Red Sox pitched their way to #22 in the majors in ERA
-and that won't get it done this year.
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It's easy to look at the Red Sox off season and declare them losers right off the bat. Why not? Sports Illustrated and lesser lights have them finishing third, or worse, and Toronto has become the "sleeper" pick in the AL East. But I think it would be unwise to forget so quickly the way that this team TORE UP the AL in the middle of the season last year, crushing teams to the point where even their anemic finish still allowed them to finish 1st in MLB in runs scored. It was no accident, as they also finished first in OBP and OPS. They wore teams out offensively, and that was with J.D. Drew and the Mysteriously Disappearing Crawford. Folks, offense is half the game. People were shocked they didn't add a lot offensively, but it's hard to argue that they needed to - they clearly have the offense to win games. There are, to be sure, some risks offensively. Ortiz could disappear, Youkilis could get hurt (again), catching could be a weakness and Aviles could wear down as an everyday player. But there's more promise here than downside, with Lavarnway itching to hit in the bigs and the chance that Crawford has the same type of season hard to fathom. Gonzales will probably improve on last season with no injury to worry about. Right field will be better, cause there's no where to go but up. Will Middlebrooks looks to me like he could adequately spend some time with the club if Youk gets hurt too, and the Sox would probably like to get a look at him at some point. Bottom Line: Expect the Sox to mash.
But then we look at the pitching. Last year, Everyone broke camp healthy, and a fat lot of good that did them! Yes, I give credit to Lackey for toughing it out, but it's hard to imagine any of the guys we're thinking about now, Bard, Aceves, Cook, Dubront, a returning Matsuzaka - can they be worse than the season he put togther? I doubt it. Will Clay break his back again? That seems like a freak injury to me, not like an elbow or shoulder, so I hope not. It looks to me like the Sox have much better depth in the rotation - even if it lacks the star power and big contracts of last year. The bullpen, though, is an unmitigated mess, but has many intriguing options. There's no doubt that the loss of Bailey, until at least the All-Star break by my guess, is a big loss. But it's a bullpen! They're always a mess. And you can put me down for saying that 50 million for a closer is NUTS! When Papelbon blew a save in the playoffs everyone was ready to cut ties with him. But one good year and people are talking that's he Rivera! Please. He's an excellent closer - but committing that money to a bullpen pitcher - when you need depth, luck, and options - is crazy. Bottom Line: If a bullpen emerges, I like the Sox against anyone.
Yankees
Everyone looks at the Yankees rotation and says they are better than they were last year. You know what? They are right. They have better depth and talent. But it's about production, and can this crew PITCH at the same LEVEL as last year's crew? That I'm not so sure about. That's not a knock on who've they got, its an admission that Garcia and Colon were Un-freaken-believeable last year. You got 300 innings and a 3.8 ERA from those guys in the toughest division in baseball (so they say!). Throw in Nova, and you're talking 460 innings at a 3.7 clip. Folks, it's not a lock that those numbers will be replicated by some combination of the likes of Kuroda, Pineda, Hughes, and Nova. Nova, for one, is certainly looking like the Sophomore slump may bite him early. Not only did he pitch brutally bad in Spring Training, his comments and confidence are worse than his ballooning ERA would suggest. Garcia is a gamble every year. Hughes has to improve, but is anyone sold on his ability to be a solid innings eater, let alone a front of the rotation guy? Like the Sox, the Yankees did a little "better by subtraction" by cutting ties with Burnett, but that Yankee band box cuts both ways - it's tough on Pitchers - and there's plenty of risk here. Bottom line: Yankess will be good, but may not be as good as they were last year when it's all done. The bullpen will be as good as Rivera is, and as he is the ageless wonder on his final tour, we'll leave it alone for now.
When it comes to hitting, the Sox were #1, but the Yankees were #2, so the same logic applies here. It's essentially the same team, and while a few players (Jeter, Granderson) should probably not do as well, there's plenty that under-performed last year and may pick up the slack. The wildcard is injuries - the Yankees are OLD. Not sure what happens to that offense if there's a rash of injuries, but that could be said about any team. You could argue though, that the Yankees are due. Bottom Line: Yanks will mash too, but I expect some "gut-check" moments when the pitching struggles.
Tampa Bay
Uh, can we get Joe Madden instead of Bobby V? I have to tell you, I'm a big Bobby Valentine fan - this season is going to be fun, fun, fun, with him at the helm, taking shots at the Yankees and the media as fast as he can load that six-shooter he calls a mouth, and I actually think he can get a lot out of this team. I guess we'll know by the All-Star Break, but it'll be fun either way. But, my point is, I think you have to say that Joe Madden is the best, best, best. With just over 700 runs batted in, 150 less than the BoSox, they beat out the Sox for the wildcard spot. They've been too good, for too long, to chalk it up to luck. They've got talented pitching, and hitters that should be feared in close games. Despite the fact that some of their best hitters posted less than stellar batting averages, their OBPs were very good - .330 or better - showing that they can work pitchers as good as anyone. The line up still looks soft to me, compared to the stalwarts of the league, but if Maddon can keep them focused, they're a threat in any game. Their pitching doesn't hurt either: of the three teams, I think it's clearly the Rays who have the fewest questions, and the best chance to lead the league in pitching. Will it be enough to win the division with that lineup? Well, it took an epic collapse by the Sox for them to get in, and I don't see it happening again.
The Prediction
Red Sox ride Crazy Bobby to 94 wins and a division lead, charging down the stretch on the much improved pitching when Matsuzaka returns to the rotation and Bard goes back to the bullpen, with Bailey looking sharp after returning from surgery. (Hey, a guy can dream right?).
Yankees hit a speed bump when Rivera's exit doesn't go as planned, and Nova and Garcia's short outings put pressure on the bullpen to vault to the next level. (I'd say that they need a trampoline to jump that high, but that's not fair to Chamberlain). 92 wins.
Tampa Bay struggles against the improved competition in the AL, and competes but falls short at 90 wins.
