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Jan. 7, 2011

Best/Worst towns to Buy or Sell A Home in Metrowest- Early January Rankings 2011

See All the Rankings!

 

OK.  Been wanting to do this for a while, but hadn't worked out the Methodology and data sets yet.  But, I'm close enough*, so wanted to get it out to my growing readership.  People love charts, so here's one for ya.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OK, so how is this chart read?  Well, it's pretty simple. First of all, it's not a ranking of where you should live.  By and large, the best town for you depends on, well, YOU!  If I ever figure out how to put that in a formula I will, but don't hold your breath :-). OK:  If you're selling, or want to sell, it's better to be at the top.  If you're buying, you may want to think about some of the towns near the bottom.  All the towns that I cover have been compiled based on the statistics that I track here on the blog, and then I use a weighted average to come up with the final scores.  (Details available upon request - just e-mail me).

It should be no surprise to regular readers that Natick finished in the top spot - it was simply En Fuego this year.  All the towns with a score above 90 (Framingham and above) currently have very strong demand.  If you've been selling in the hot towns and you're not seeing demand, well 'Lucy, you have some 'splaining to do!', which means you should look in to that and start asking questions!  Buyers will have more choices - and more leverage - in the towns near the bottom (Worcester and below).  Sellers in those markets are likely very anxious for solid offers, and they have been waiting around for them.  Sellers in those markets should be thinking about their pricing or improving their property, or waiting for a better time to list.  They are not real estate markets, IMHO, where you should be 'reaching' for a price, or 'testing' a price.  There's not enough demand to play around with your most important asset, so get serious about selling from the get go.  A final note, prices and valuation do not play any role in this data, so just because Sudbury is more expensive then Worcester it doesn't get a higher score.  That's really a separate issue, and we might see that chart later.

 

Real Estate Trends From the Chart

If you look at the towns near the top, they are, by and large, towns on the eastern edge of the towns covered.  This tells me that demand last year was so strong east of those towns, that the buyers got tired of waiting and  "spilled over" and started grabbing property in the next towns over.  I didn't see a ton of price appreciation in these towns, but if they heat up again this spring we will see it - sales can't keep out selling the inventory and not have an effect on prices.  Frustrated buyers in those towns will continue moving West, as is typical in Massachusetts, and we might see tighter markets in the middle group, where markets are balanced, in the late spring.  A couple of individual towns also stand out.  Southborough was much higher until the last report, as it really stalled in the last few months (it's a small town, data can change very quickly).  The spring in Southborough was really strong last year, a trend we might see again since I don't see any softening to the east.  Holliston is also pretty strong, but it's numbers are hurt a bit by some large, expensive, new construction projects that are distorting the numbers more than is some of the other towns.

 

Don't like your rank?  Ask me why it is where it is. Feel free to comment if you think this is nonsense or not.  And again, if you'd like to see the full data sets, you can ask for it.  You can also ask for how the scores are calculated based on the data, but don't expect an exact answer - that's my little secret.

 

*Not all of data is collected at the same time, some smaller towns may not have accurate results do to limited data sets. Also, much of this data is based on December statistics, which have seasonal variations. Lastly, I tweaked the rankings a bit I did after the post to better represent market time for solds.

 

 

Do Good Things Today!

 

 Matt Heisler

 

Top Articles

Matt Heisler is a real-estate professional and owner of Heisler & Mattson Properties. He has been selling residential real-estate for over 10 years. He has given several talks on real estate, including presentations on first-time buyer tips & tricks, and profiting in real estate investing in Massachusetts. As a Vanderbilt University alumnus, he is proud to serve his local community. *All information is posted in good faith and is assumed to be reliable, but may rely on third party information sources.

Posted in Home Buyer Hot Topics, Home Selling, Massachusetts
2 comments
Jan. 6, 2011

Worcester, MA - Recent Home Sales Statistics, Trends and Analysis (Jan)

  • Worcester has 497 (vs. 593) single family homes listed as Active
  • Worcester had 388 (vs. 430) single family sales in the last 6 months, and 186 single family sales last 3 months
  • Worcester has an Average Market Time of 114 (vs 106) days for SOLD properties
  • Worcester has an Average Market Time of 170 days for ACTIVE properties
  • Worcester has an Average Sold Price of $ 185,000 for sold properties

 

Question about the terms used here?  Check my Explanation for Mass Home Sale Statistics

 

Last Worcester Real Estate Report

Analysis of Real Estate Statistics

Worcester may be going through some seasonal pullback, but the long term trends are trending very positive for Worcester.  Trending down from a high of 650 homes on the market, the actives now stand at 500 - a reduction of over 20% - and that will significantly help pricing power for sellers.  The selling momentum has stayed solid, staying under 120 days, showing that current price points are moving off the excess inventory in Worcester.  We aren't at a neutral market yet, it's still a buyers market with an unbalanced active/solds ratio, but we're closer than we have been in many months, and if this trend continues, the Worcester market could stabilize or even increase.

 

 

Find Your Next Home or Check out the Competition!

 

 

 

 

ALL REAL ESTATE IS LOCAL!  No matter if your town is HOT or COLD, an agent who knows the market can help you position your home for sale. (That would be me.) For more detailed reporting, including breakdowns by price range, contact Matt Heisler of Heisler & Mattson directly!

Top Articles

Matt Heisler is a real-estate professional and owner of Heisler & Mattson Properties. He has been selling residential real-estate for over 10 years. He has given several talks on real estate, including presentations on first-time buyer tips & tricks, and profiting in real estate investing in Massachusetts. As a Vanderbilt University alumnus, he is proud to serve his local community. *All information is posted in good faith and is assumed to be reliable, but may rely on third party information sources.

Posted in Worcester, MA
no comments yet
Jan. 6, 2011

Real Estate as an Inflation Hedge - For those who are renting.

This is a continuation in my series Macro Economics and Real Estate (It's not that tough), listed at the bottom of the linked page.

 

 

 

Many of us have heard that Housing is a Hedge against inflation.  But what exactly does that mean?  In this article, we’ll examine the word Hedge, and Inflation, and then discuss this phrase, and what Macro economic factors need to be present for this to be true, and how that might apply to potential buyers out there in the market.

What Is A Hedge?

A hedge is something that helps mitigate risk. Since it’s pretty easy to explain hedging with sports gambling, I’ll use that example here. Let’s say you think the Patriots are going to win the Super Bowl this year. (They are, but that’s besides the point....). You plunk down $1000 in Atlantic City on the Pats. But you wake up tomorrow and aren’t so sure. Well, you can’t call AC and say I want my money back! But what you can do is bet $1000 for the Patriots to lose. That way, win or lose, you’ll only be out the commission for the two bets. The second bet is a hedge - a way to offset the risk of the first bet. While a hedge often costs money to execute, it’s goal is to dramatically cut your losses if things don’t work out the way you expect.

 

Inflation: A closer look.

Most of us understand that inflation defined as rise in prices of the things we buy. That’s not too complicated. I do think that most of us get lost when asked the next question: What causes inflation in the first place? and the one after that is tricky too: Is inflation bad? Let’s deal with the first question: What causes inflation? We understand that inflation is caused by prices going up. To see why, lets look at a company such as Oral-B, the toothbrush maker. Now, to keep this simple, I’ll be eliminating a bunch of factors, but just stay with me. 

Oral-B has a bunch of employees that make the toothbrushes. Let’s say you’re one of them! After one year, you go to Oral-B and say, “Hey, I’m much better at making toothbrushes, I’d like to make more money.” Oral-B thinks that you are good at toothbrush making, so they give you a raise. Now to pay for the raise, they need to make more money, so they push up the prices of toothbrushes, so there you go. Need more evidence that's how it works? Well the federal reserve tracks inflation, and inflation over the last 10 years has averaged about 2.4%. And raises have averaged about 2.8%. Awfully close!  Inflation has other positive aspects economically, as we’ll see, and those positives make inflation a desirable thing.

 

Is Inflation a Good Thing?

Is inflation a good thing? The answer, to many people’s surprise, is YES. Inflation is not only good, it is NECESSARY. Why is this so? To explain, I'll show why deflation is BAD. Deflation is when the costs of goods and services decrease over time. Simply put, that toothbrush that costs $2.00 today, will be $1.80 tomorrow. Well, if I KNOW that prices are going down, why would I buy anything today? Surely I could get another day or two out of my existing toothbrush, couldn’t I? Sure I could. And then I would save 10%. Now if you could save 10% on everything you wanted to buy this year and you just needed to wait a bit, wouldn’t you wait? You would. And that’s where the trouble starts. If EVERYBODY is not buying, but waiting, the manufactures (and retailers) have less to make and sell. With less work to do, they lay off workers. Now the workers who get laid off REALLY need to save their money, because they are out of work, so they buy even less, and wait even longer. This encourages manufactures and retailers to lay off more workers, and the cycle continues. Yikes. Deflation is really bad, I would argue the number one killer of economies, and should be avoided at all costs. Need more proof? Look at housing transactions whenever prices decline. They plummet! Why? Because most people won’t buy a house if they think it will be cheaper tomorrow. So if deflation is bad, that makes inflation good. Inflation encourages us to buy today, because tomorrow things could be more expensive. And that keeps everyone employed. That’s good. Now it’s certainly been proved that too much inflation is a bad thing.  As this post is long already, I’ll skip over why too much inflation is bad, I just wanted to acknowledge that it is.

 

How is Housing a Hedge Against Inflation?

Ok, back to the big question. As we noticed, in an inflationary environment, we buy today, because tomorrow, with the same money, we can buy less. And, we noted that inflation tracks very closely with compensation. The last thing we need to look at is your mortgage, and how the leverage of your home helps you make money in Real Estate. If you own a $400,000, with a $300,000 mortgage at 7% (keeping things simple here), you’re paying about $21,000 annually in interest. But what are you REALLY paying in interest? Well, your REAL interest rate is your rate MINUS the rate of inflation, let’s say 3%, so your real rate of interest is 4%, or about $12,000. If inflation accelerates, let’s say to 7%, then you really aren’t paying ANY interest at all. Confused yet? I’ll try to make it more direct. Your mortgage payment every year is fixed, assuming you don’t refinance and you’re in a 30 year loan (which we’ll assume for simplicity). Let’s say your paying $2000 a month, or $24,000/year. And you make 75,000. Next year you’ll make what? 78K? And the year after? 82K? And so on, and let’s just assume in 5 years you’re making 90K. Your home COSTS the same, but you’re making more. That's nice. And the faster inflation goes up, the more likely you’ll be making much more, making it easier and easier to stay put and pay that mortgage. Now, we all know it isn’t always that simple, but in aggregate, this is basically what happens. So even though EVERYTHING ELSE- milk, gas, toys, clothes, cars - gets more expensive with inflation, your home gets cheaper.Even more interesting, the FASTER inflation goes up, the FASTER your home gets cheaper, relative to the money your making.  That’s why it’s a hedge. Just like the hedge we described in the beginning, it has a cost, but it’s job is to offset something bad, like the cost of everything else going up. So what happens if you don’t own a home? Well, then you’re paying rent, and in an inflationary environment, rent goes up, along with everything else. So renting doesn’t protect you from inflation - only home ownership does.

 

 

 

There’s more to this story of course, and if you have questions, please ask them in the comments, but that’s all for now!

 

 

Do Good Things Today!

 

 Matt Heisler

 

Posted in Home Buyer Hot Topics
no comments yet
Jan. 5, 2011

Upton, MA - Recent Home Sales Statistics, Trends and Analysis (Jan)

    • Upton  has 38 single family homes listed as Active
  • Upton had 25 single family sales in the last 6 months, and 12 single family sales last 3 months
  • Upton has an Average Market Time of 140 days for SOLD properties
  • Upton has an Average Market Time of 204 days for ACTIVE properties
  • Upton has an Average Sold Price of $ 384,000 for sold properties

 

 

Upton Real Estate Analysis

 

Upton is a small town, so the statistics can be less reliable, nevertheless, they are consistent with much of Metrowest.  There is a slight overhand of inventory, but sales have been steady over the last six months, and 140 days this time of year for sold is no cause for concern for sellers.  Buyers should be aware that with such limited inventory, finding a home of their choice in Upton could take time, so they should be patient or consider broadening their search.

 

 

 

Question about the terms used here?  Check my Explanation for Mass Home Sale Statistics

 

 

ALL REAL ESTATE IS LOCAL!  No matter if your town is HOT or COLD, an agent who knows the market can help you position your home for sale. (That would be me.) For more detailed reporting, including breakdowns by price range, contact Matt Heisler of Heisler & Mattson directly!

Top Seven Articles

Matt Heisler is a real-estate professional and owner of Heisler & Mattson Properties. He has been selling residential real-estate for over 10 years. He has given several talks on real estate, including presentations on first-time buyer tips & tricks, and profiting in real estate investing in Massachusetts. As a Vanderbilt University alumnus, he is proud to serve his local community. *All information is posted in good faith and is assumed to be reliable, but may rely on third party information sources.

Posted in Upton, Ma
no comments yet
Jan. 4, 2011

Making sure you have a clean Title V - Taking care of your Septic Tank

For most of us, septic systems are right where they belong - out of sight!!  It's all too easy for them to be out of mind as well, and that could be a mistake that costs you dearly!  No two ways about it, whether your system is new or old, has high flows or low flows, it's a system that needs attention and planning to keep it at its best, and running cleanly (and safely) for years.  It's far, far, easier to maintain a system then to fix one, so be proactive and maintain it!  Here are some basic and important tips.

 

 

Even Latex Paint is a Not Safe for your

Septic System, and Thinners and Oil

Based Paints Are Dangerous to Add

 

Pump your Septic Tank Regularly

 

The most fool proof way to keep your system healthy.  You and your regular septic fellow (and you do have one, yes?) should discuss the schedule that you should be pumped at.  The number of people living at the home, the amount of water used, and the size of your tank are all variables that should be evaluated by someone in the trade.

 

Your septic system is not a trash can

 

Take note:  What you put in it, can't come out, so anything - and I mean anything - that doesn't degrade over a fairly short life span could be shorting the life of your system.  This includes food!  Most food has too much fiber to be broken down quickly, so don't hook up that garbage disposal - it could cost you more than you think.  Even small amounts of food can quickly overwhelm a system that is not being taken care of properly.  So, whatever you call it, garbage grinder, garbage disposal, either get it removed or don't put one in.  As another note, they are often illegal in towns that have septic systems.  In Massachusetts, your system has to be specially rated to handle food, according to Title V guidelines.  Plastics, grease are all big no-no's too, as they also won't break down fast enough.

 

Watch the Bleach and Anti-bacterials Volume in your Septic System

Your system relies on bacteria to function - it's the bacteria who does the real dirty work.  If you're using a lot of bleach, or even anti bacterial soaps, your literally killing your systems ability to do what it does best. Used in small amounts, the bacterial will survive, so try to limit or eliminate these products from entering your system, and where possible, add additional bacterial to keep it running smoothly. Check products like dishwasher detergents, soaps, laundry detergent for the magic words: "safe for use with septic systems."

 

 

Are you looking for an inspector for a Title V, or just looking for a reliable septic pumper?  I'd be happy to share my "Best of the Best" in this area, so just reach out and let me know.

 

Looking for More?

What does Title V or Title 5 Mean?

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Do Good Things Today!

 

 Matt Heisler

Posted in Home Ownership and Maintenance, Home Selling, Title V
no comments yet
Jan. 1, 2011

Sudbury, MA - Recent Home Sales Statistics, Trends and Analysis (Jan)

    • Sudbury has 85  (vs. 130 in last report) single family homes listed as Active

  • Sudbury had 111 (vs. 117) single family sales in the last 6 months, and 56 single family sales last 3 months
  • Sudbury has an Average Market Time of 151 (vs. 135) days for SOLD properties
  • Sudbury has an Average Market Time of 227 days for ACTIVE properties
  • Sudbury has an Average Sold Price of $ 716,000 for sold properties

Sudbury has seen the seasonal pull back in inventory, with 45 homes off the market compared with the last report, but most of those will come back on.  Sales look steady, so there isn't any apparent weakening in the market from the statistics.  As noted previous, the market under 800K is very competitive for buyers (move quick!) and the market above 800K is more competitive for sellers.  There don't appear to be any price pressures in Sudbury at this time.

 

 

Question about the terms used here?  Check my Explanation for Mass Home Sale Statistics

 



Most Expensive Homes in Sudbury



ALL REAL ESTATE IS LOCAL!  No matter if your town is HOT or COLD, an agent who knows the market can help you position your home for sale. (That would be me.) For more detailed reporting, including breakdowns by price range,contact Matt Heisler of Heisler & Mattson directly!

 

Top Articles

 

 

Matt Heisler is a real-estate professional and owner of Heisler & Mattson Properties.  He has been selling residential real-estate for over 10 years.  He has given several talks on real estate, including presentations on first-time buyer tips & tricks, and profiting in real estate investing in Massachusetts. As a Vanderbilt University alumnus, he is proud to serve his local community.

 

*All information is posted in good faith and is assumed to be reliable, but may rely on third party information sources.



Do Good Things Today!

 Matt Heisler

  

Posted in Sudbury, MA
no comments yet
Jan. 1, 2011

2011 Massachusetts Real Estate Predictions!

Personally, I have a great feeling about 2011.  After all, 11 is lucky number!

 

But in the spirit of making predictions, I'd like to remind everyone of the parable of the Zen Master and the boy.  The parable was at the end of Charlie Wilson's War.  I like it because it teaches us humility in our ability to make predictions.  It's mostly delivered by Phillip Seymour Hoffman's character, Gust.

 

The Parable of the Zen Master and the Boy

 

Zen Masters Like Candles

There’s a little boy. Now on his 14th birthday he gets a horse, and everybody in the village says “How wonderful the boy got a horse,” and the Zen master says “We’ll see.”

Two years later the boy falls off the horse, breaks his leg, and everybody in the village says “How terrible,” and the Zen master says “We’ll see.”

Then a war breaks out and all the young men have to go off and fight, except the boy can’t cause his leg’s all messed up, and everybody in the village says “How wonderful" and the Zen master says “We’ll see.”

The story, of course, shows that determining whether or not something is TRULY a good thing or a bad thing is based on our ability to predict the future.  And the parable also demonstrates how terrible we usually are at predicting the future!  But there's no point in not trying.  

 

I hope to update this with baseline status later in the year so that I can check in on how I'm doing in the prediction biz.

 

 

  1. Housing transaction volume will be up, slightly, in Massachusetts.  
  2. Prices will be up, 2-4%
  3. The spring and the fall markets will be more even this year, resulting in disappointing stats in the first half, but encouraging ones in the second half.

Other notes (added late January, 2011):

 

I have started to track a measure for looking at foreclosed properties in the towns covered on the blog.  The main reason for this is that there's a huge debate going on "out there" as to the amount of "shadow inventory" and how when the "shadow inventory" hits the market we're all going to see property values dip (depending on who you ask) another 5-20%.  So that depends on the following:  That most (or a lot) of the shadow inventory reaches the market in 2011, AND that the inventory is priced (as is typical 5% below market, AND that it's enough inventory to saturate the market - create more sellers than buyers.  Oh, AND the banks don't start agreeing to more short-sales instead of foreclosures.

 

If it works out that way, the results will be far different than my predictions here, hence, my reason for tracking the inventory.  I can tell you this though:  right now, there's not enough foreclosure inventory to push prices downs.  It's only about 5% in my area, and while by historical standards that's a lot, most towns are short on homes to sell, and have too many buyers, so it's going to take more than that.  Stay posted, we'll see how it shakes out.

 

Do Good Things Today!

 

 Matt Heisler

 

Posted in Massachusetts
no comments yet
Dec. 30, 2010

Just Sold: 433 Boxwood Clinton, MA

Well, it took a while, but I just sold 433 Boxwood in Clinton.  It was a short-sale, and the banks were difficult (you can read more about that in the Globe and on this blog), but ultimately was a successful short-sale for the sellers, and was really done with out a lot of unexpected problems.

 

View Larger Map

 

Do Good Things Today!

 

 Matt Heisler

Posted in Clinton, MA
no comments yet
Dec. 27, 2010

Shrewsbury, MA - Recent Home Sales Statistics, Trends and Analysis (Dec)

Shrewsbury, MA - Recent Home Sales Statistics, Trends and Analysis (Dec)

 

  • Shrewsbury has 142 single family homes listed as Active
  • Shrewsbury had 154 single family sales in the last 6 months, and 80 single family sales last 3 months
  • Shrewsbury has an Average Market Time of 114 days for SOLD properties
  • Shrewsbury has an Average Market Time of 202 days for ACTIVE properties
  • Shrewsbury has an Average Sold Price of $ 418,000 for sold properties

 

 

 

Shrewsbury, Ma Home Sale and  Purchase Statistic Commentary

 

Winters Day in Shrewsbury

 

 

There has been some seasonal slow down since the last Home Sales Statistics Report. Active have tighten, and sales have fallen off a bit. Market time remains steady. There's good selection at all price levels, with the midpoint in the actives at around $420K. Sellers will get solid activity for desirable locations and house types, and buyers should be aware the best homes are selling quickly, so they should be aggressive when finding neighborhood homes.

 

 

Questions about the terms used here?  Check my Explanation for Mass Home Sale Statistics

 

ALL REAL ESTATE IS LOCAL!  No matter if your town is HOT or COLD, an agent who knows the market can help you position your home for sale. (That would be me.) For more detailed reporting, including breakdowns by price range,contact Matt Heisler !

 

 

Matt Heisler is a real-estate professional and owner of Heisler & Mattson Properties.  He has been selling residential real-estate for over 10 years.  He has given several talks on real estate, including presentations on first-time buyer tips & tricks, and profiting in real estate investing in Massachusetts. As a Vanderbilt University alumnus, he is proud to serve his local community.

 

*All information is posted in good faith and is assumed to be reliable, but may rely on third party information sources.

 

 

Do Good Things Today! Matt Heisler 

Posted in Shrewsbury MA
no comments yet
Dec. 27, 2010

Southborough, MA - Recent Home Sales Statistics, Trends and Analysis (Dec)

Southborough, MA - Recent Home Sales Statistics, Trends and Analysis (Dec)

 

  • Southborough has 59 (vs. 71 in last report) single family homes listed as Active
  • Southborough had 36 (vs. 50) single family sales in the last 6 months, and 20 single family sales last 3 months
  • Southborough has an Average Market Time of 137 (vs. 102) days for SOLD properties
  • Southborough has an Average Market Time of 135 days for ACTIVE properties
  • Southborough has an Average Sold Price of $ 662,000 for sold properties

 

Commentary on Southborough Home Purchase and Sale Statistics

Southborough is a small town, and with such limited inventory, you occasionally get runs like this, but the difference in this months report is pretty stunning!  The solds have dropped signficantly, showing that seller momentum in town really dried up over the summer, and homes stopped selling.  This is also reflected in the signficant jump in days on market, which has come all the way up to 137 from a sizzling mid-90's number that was reflected the spring demand (which was remarkable).  The average sold price remains very high for metrowest, but as the number of sales drops, that becomes less significant.  Around half the inventory is under 500K, so there are still some affordable homes on the market, which is surprising given the strong demand for luxury property in the town this year.

 

Last home sale statistics on Southborough

 

Question about the terms used here?  Check my Explanation for Mass Home Sale Statistics

 

ALL REAL ESTATE IS LOCAL!  No matter if your town is HOT or COLD, an agent who knows the market can help you position your home for sale. (That would be me.) For more detailed reporting, including breakdowns by price range, contact Matt Heisler of Heisler & Mattson directly!

 

Top Articles

 

 

Matt Heisler is a real-estate professional and owner of Heisler & Mattson Properties.  He has been selling residential real-estate for over 10 years.  He has given several talks on real estate, including presentations on first-time buyer tips & tricks, and profiting in real estate investing in Massachusetts. As a Vanderbilt University alumnus, he is proud to serve his local community.

 

*All information is posted in good faith and is assumed to be reliable, but may rely on third party information sources.

 

 

 

Do Good Things Today! Matt Heisler 

Posted in Southborough, MA
no comments yet

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